Wednesday, August 28, 2013

MSU v Oklahoma State

MSU v Oklahoma State

It's game week, bitches! And I'm more pumped than Tuco Salamanca after testing out Heisenberg's Blue Sky! TIGHT TIGHT TIGHT!!! As is quickly becoming a tradition among my friends, yours truly, Professor
D., Timelord_MK, Frodo the Bar Hobbit and several others will be whisking ourselves away to beautiful and scenic downtown Atlanta to attend Dragon Con 2013, and indulge our inner-geeks in a Hedonism-esque nerd-fest of epic proportions! If you've never checked out Dragon Con I can't recommend it enough... there's something for everyone! But I digress! And also Dragon Con doesn't pay me, so let's get back on track...

It's time to run down this week's match ups and see if we can prognosticate the results to all our SEC showdowns. Ole Miss and Vanderbilt give us this week's lone conference contest, so we know somebody is walking away with that all important first win in the conference column. Can the SEC run the table against their non-conference foes? Lets dig in and find out!

(Editor's note: Since I took first run at the season preview I will give Professor D first run at this week's picks. The Professor tends to include more facts and figures in his picks anyway, whereas everybody's favorite Hoochie-man tends to shoot from the hip a hell of a lot more... so if this works well we may stick with the format, but the situation is fluid so nothing is final just yet.)

(Professor D) It’s time! The folks at the House of Hooch (all two of us) have been gearing up and sweating bullets to bring you the predictions for week one of the 2013 College Football season. A couple of formatting notes for my section, the first team will be the home team unless the game is played at a neutral site, then the first team will either be the SEC team or the one I like more. Speaking of, neutral site games are marked as such, and, where applicable, the result of last year’s matchup is shown in brackets. The matchups are also ordered by my interest in the game.

We’ve got a slew of non-conference opponents on the lineup for week one, as expected. What isn’t expected is the quality of most of those non-conference opponents. The good teams in the SEC are facing good teams abroad, while the lower portion of the conference mostly faces off against middle of the road teams (great in their conference). What does that mean? It means this is going to be a nightmare to pick, but that’s our problem not yours. Like, I could go 0 for 13 this week, or 1 - 12. Alabama is really the only team I completely trust to handle business this week. So, without further adieu, off to it!

Tennessee v. Austin Peay

Austin Peay isn't likely to catch Tennessee napping...
Tennessee will be in a position far too common for my taste in week one: fighting for its life as a relevant team in the SEC. Sure that sounds a bit dramatic, but hear me out. The Volunteers are breaking in a new coach, new quarterback, new receivers, and hopefully a new defense. That’s a lot of new on the board for Tennessee, and while Austin Peay may be a cupcake compared to the SEC, a loss pretty much ends the Volunteers’ season hopes. So yeah, the offensive line will probably be enough to muscle up a run game that can win the day, but man… can you imagine if they couldn’t?

Tennessee 31 - Austin Peay 20

Missouri v. Murray State

See above. If Missouri wants to start playing with the big boys they’ve got to win the games they’re supposed to, and it all starts against Murray State. Much like Tennessee, the Tigers will most assuredly be the more talented team on the field (as any SEC school should be against non-conference foes…. except Mississippi State…. because, well, Oklahoma State). Unlike Tennessee, however, Missouri isn’t breaking in a new head coach or nearly as many new faces. Gary Pinkel (what a name) will go down in history as one of the best coaches in Mizzou history, but if he can’t pull out a winning season his job may be in jeopardy. A loss against Murray State in the opener could spell doom for the head coach, and almost certainly for Missouri’s young season. I think the Tigers will pull this one out, but again…. can you imagine if they couldn’t?

Missouri 33 - Murray State 27

Florida v. Toledo

Sniff sniff…. hmm what’s that I smell? Could it be an upset? Hmmmm. Some of you guys out there probably think I’m crazy for thinking it just might happen, and you’re probably right, but Toledo could
Gator fans are hoping they can shake off the funk
of their bowl game loss to Louisville and get back
to chompin on the opposition.
be poised to pull the annual opening day shocker we normally get with College Football. Toledo returns a wealth of experience from a team that last year went 9-4, and has been recruiting better than teams like Georgia Tech and Boston College. Sure they’re not on the level of Florida or anyone else in the SEC, but still, for a school like Toledo that’s insane. If they get some production out of their recruits this year, with the experience being held over from last year’s season, Toledo could do some damage. The Gators are coming off a disappointing end to what was, overall, a fantastic season. The loss to Louisville stings, but how will Florida use that disappointment this year? If it follows them into the first game, watch out, things could get nasty. Of course the sheer power of the Gator defense should knock Toledo flat on their haunches by the fourth quarter, but who knows… who knows…

Florida 31 - Toledo 20 (but MUCH closer going into the 4th quarter. like 21 - 20)

Kentucky v. Western Kentucky [32 - 31 OT WKU]

If you’re wondering why I decided to start including the results from previous years, this is why. Kentucky lost, albeit in overtime, to Western Kentucky last year, and to be honest, they never recovered. The Wildcats’ season ended before it ever truly began against the Hilltoppers, and this year they will be fighting for their lives to avenge it. Standing in their way? Themselves. Kentucky is easily the more talented team, but Western Kentucky will come out firing trying to find some way, any way, to replicate last year’s win and propel themselves to another successful season. The recent history should make this game a lot of fun to watch, but I think the Wildcats pull themselves out of some trouble and come away with the win.

Kentucky 28 - Western Kentucky 25

Auburn v. Washington State

Washington State plays in the PAC-12, making this game a must win for the SEC. The Cougars will also be showcasing first year head coach Mike Leach. WSU had one of the worst rushing attacks in College Football last year, helping contribute to a dismal 3-9 record. Shucks a 3-9 team out of the
Ugh, what's that smell?
Oh yeah, I'm in Alabama...
PAC-12? Surely they’ll get stomped by that SEC caliber defense and talent right? Oh wait, this is Auburn. The Tigers have talent, oh my do they have talent, but they just haven’t been able to put together a coaching staff that could take advantage of all those 4 and 5 star recruits. The result last year was Auburn went 3-9 overall, and an abhorrent 0-8 in the SEC. Two 3-9 teams from last year, each with well respected new head coaches, facing off to open the season. You should probably be slapped if you think this one is an open and shut case. Here’s what I think happens: Auburn gives up an early lead to the Cougars as their offense spins its wheels trying to get something going, finally gaining traction in the second quarter. Meanwhile the defense slowly starts to figure out how to stop Washington State through the air, letting the Tigers’ superior talent on the defensive line take care of the run. Slowly but surely the Tigers reverse the shootout and come out on top. Boy do I hope I’m right. I’m counting on Auburn’s talent and homefield advantage to pull them through against the more experienced and probably better coached Cougars.

Auburn 45 - Washington State 38

Arkansas v. University of Louisiana-Lafayette

I’ve really been flirting with calling the upset so far, but here? I’m going for it all out. Arkansas is
Buck up, little Hawgy! It's a long season...
reeling from last year’s disaster of a football season, desperately trying to get back on track. It wasn’t long ago that the Razorbacks were dark horse candidates for the National Championship. My how that ship has sailed. The Ragin’ Cajuns meanwhile are trying to make three straight 9 win seasons. They’ve got an offense that averaged over 35 points per game and they return the dual threat quarterback who did it in Terrence Broadway. This kid is pretty good, and against Arkansas’ defense, I think he’s just going to go nuts. I think the Razorbacks are going to surrender a lot of points early in the game (like 28 by halftime) and, though they’ll try, not be able to recover. It could be Washington State, it could be Toledo, or it could be Western Kentucky. I’ve given the SEC the benefit of the doubt so far, but this is where luck runs out.

Arkansas 31 - University of Louisiana-Lafayette 42

South Carolina v. North Carolina
You guys all saw me tear into South Carolina pretty good in the preseason review, and I’m sticking to it. I’ll just come out and say the Gamecocks are going to win this game, but it’s going to be much closer than South Carolina fans want it to be. North Carolina went a respectable 8-5 in an ACC conference that turned out to be anything but. The Tar Heels have got an up and coming quarterback with enough of last year’s targets and protection to dig in a get comfortable. Until Clowney happens, I mean. But you know, until then things look fun! My point is they should score a few points before the
Andrew Luck, RGIII and Cam Newton running the 40.
Where is Clowney? He's already done and sippin
on a Gatoraid...
Gamecocks superior size and skill up front end their hopes at an upset. The problem is the run game, which is without last year’s superstar All-American Giovani Bernard. They’ll be relying on a fresh sophomore to get something going against… oh yeah… Clowney and company…. well nevermind. At least Larry Fedora (formerly of Southern Miss fame) put in a fast paced offense last year that should score at least a few points. South Carolina, meanwhile, has to find a way to put up some points of its own. Sure they return Connor Shaw, but he’s lost some of his best targets and will be getting no run support. Add that to the Tar Heels being anchored by a veteran safety on defense and this could be a recipe for disaster. I’m counting on the home field advantage, and the pseudo rivalry feel of the game to tilt the scales in Jadeveon… I mean South Carolina’s favor. Oh yeah, and Clowney. I really can’t wait to watch this guy play again. I know you’re all probably sick of hearing about him, but I’m going to indulge myself anyway. Holy crap. This kid is incredible. He runs a 4.46 40? Are you kidding me? RGIII ran 4.41 at the combine. Yeah, that’s right, Clowney is a defensive lineman who runs on pace with a track star. Whoa.

South Carolina 24 - North Carolina 20

Alabama v. Virginia Tech (neutral site)

This game probably shouldn’t be this far down the list, especially as I learn more about what Virginia Tech will actually be fielding against the Tide, but the potential for disaster has them down a little further than is probably warranted. Virginia Tech was an ACC powerhouse not too long ago, but they ended up a disappointing 7-6 last year as their conference took a nose dive led by Virginia Tech and Florida State. The Hokies will start three freshmen on defense against what should be a juggernaut offense for the Crimson Tide (yeah, just what Alabama needed, a great offense). That alone spells doom for Virginia Tech. Combine that with the Elephants (if you didn’t want to be called an elephant you should have picked a different mascot!) returning so much of last year’s team and you’ve really got a recipe for disaster. The only hope the Hokies have is that returning quarterback Logan Thomas can somehow engineer an offense capable of putting up some points and Alabama falls flat on its face. Probably not going to happen, and this one will get very ugly, very fast.

Alabama 45 - Virginia Tech 13

Texas A&M v. Rice

Well it’s getting down to the wire and all indications are Johnny Manziel will suit up for Texas A&M when it takes on Rice this week. Good thing too, because while Rice may not look it at first glance, this is a team with real potential. I’ll get to A&M I promise, but I’d like to talk for a second about Rice. The Owls were 1 - 5 and reeling from a loss to Memphis (come on, nobody loses to Memphis except Southern Miss) when something happened. Don’t know what it was, but Rice ended the season 7 - 6. That’s one hell of a turn around. After losing 5 of their first 6 the only loss the Owl’s suffered came to eventual Conference Champion Tulsa. What’s more, last year isn’t really last year for Rice. They lost just three contributors from last year’s team. They return two better than average quarterbacks, a full committee of running backs, all but one receiver, and seven offensive lineman with starting experience. They also return all but one of their defensive linemen, ditto for linebackers, and every defensive back. That’s a lot of experience for seventh year coach David Bailiff. The kind of experience that smells of big upsets and conference championships. In addition to all that playing time Rice will also be breaking in a recruiting class significantly more talented than the ones they’ve
Johnny Football will be the 12th man for
the first half of Saturday's game.
been working with. The Owl’s lineup works for size over speed on offense, and most of their receivers are in the 6’ 3” to 6’ 5” range with big, punishing running backs. All told, this could be Rice’s year in Conference USA, and if you’re scanning channels and see them on ESPN this year, give ‘em a chance. Could be fun.

That said, big running backs don’t scare the Aggies, see Alabama, who does big running backs better than anyone except maybe LSU. Dual threat quarterbacks like those fielded by Rice don’t scare the A&M defense much either, seeing as they face arguably the best, certainly the most explosive, dual threat QB in history (Cam Newton is really the only one who comes close, being a more impressive athlete. Manziel has a more natural passing ability, and where Newton was a punishing runner, Johnny is just damned elusive). The only real threat Rice poses against Texas A&M’s defense is through the air. The Owl’s receivers are huge, and a potential source for points against an Aggie team that is sure to put them up. Rice may return a wealth of experience on defense, but there is some lack of talent, and, well…. Johnny Manziel. If he’s on the field, the Aggies are going to score, a lot. I don’t know if this one will get out of hand, but A&M should cruise to an easy victory.

All of that, of course, depends on Manziel. If he doesn’t play, things could get interesting.

Texas A&M + Manziel 45 - Rice 28 Texas A&M - Manziel 28 - Rice 24

(Editor's note: We have just learned that Manziel will sit the first half of this game in what can only be described as a "dog and pony show" version of a suspension. For this reason I have taken the liberty of averaging Professor D's prognostications. The final result is: Texas A&M 36.5 - Rice 26)

LSU v. TCU (neutral site)

Well we’ve officially left the cupcakes behind with this one, maybe. This game is a true nightmare to pick. On one hand we’ve got the perennially talented LSU breaking in a new offense and what is basically a whole new slate of defensive personnel. On the other hand we have perennially underrated TCU who was decimated by injuries on offense (I mean decimated. Lost their top two running backs after the number one guy left the team in the offseason), lost their starting quarterback to a drug arrest and rehab, and just cannibalized by a myriad of issues on defense including, but not limited to: graduation, the draft, and a drug bust that saw starting linebackers and linemen kicked off the team. Whoa. All things considered TCU’s 7-6 record is something of a miracle. Those seven
Yeah, you see that? That's blood.
DO YOUR JOB, O-LINE!!!
wins came in large part thanks to a defense that was just unbelievable. They were starting freshmen and sophomores against teams like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas, and
they performed. Like, really performed, returning the Horned Frogs to the top 15 in every major defensive category. All that experience and talent on defense faces off against a whole bunch of talent and a whole lot of question marks in LSU’s offense, which looks to make better use of Zach Mettenberger behind an experienced offensive line and familiar receiving targets. That matchup should be the best toss up we’ve watched since Arkansas played Auburn last year in the Dumpster Fire Championship, albeit for totally different reasons. TCU’s offense returns their quarterback from rehab and two good running backs from injury. They also return a solid receiving corps. The only talent hole is the offensive line, which has experience, but not the right kind, giving up loads of sacks last season and not doing much for the run game. Combine that with all the question marks players returning from injuries and rehab comes with, and no one really knows what to make of the Horned Frogs offense. Of course, no one really knows what to make of LSU’s defense either. We know they’ll be talented, and that defensive line will be chomping at the bit to get a hold of TCU’s offensive front, but can the rest of the group play up and give the Tigers a win? I have no idea. To be honest, this game could be a blowout Horn Frogs victory, the Tigers could run away with it, it could be a great, solidly close game, or two teams bumbling around the field unable to do anything. No clue. My prediction is a random (and yeah, hopeful) guess to be honest.  

LSU 24 - TCU 17

Clemson v. Georgia

I can’t wait to get a look at this Georgia team this year. If they can fill some holes on defense this team will be a lot of fun to watch. Clemson, meanwhile, has a preseason ranking largely built on beating LSU in their bowl game last year. It won’t last. The Tiger’s have stars, and they’re getting there with depth, but that’s compared to the ACC, not the SEC, and Georgia is a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. Clemson has the offense to win games and could give the Bulldogs a headache. Ranked 8th in the country, expectations are high for Clemson, and the schedule could deliver. Georgia will have to travel to play the Tigers in their own stadium, as will Florida State, and the Tigers offense should be beastly in the beginning of the season. They’ve got loads of talent across the board, and experienced offensive line, a star quarterback, and a solid rushing attack. Hmmm, the more I think about it this could be better game than anticipated. Clemson did go 11-2 last year, and yeah, they did beat LSU. Oh, wait, I forgot, the secondary is atrocious and Aaron Murray is set to break every passing record in the SEC this year. Maybe they’ll just pull everybody into coverage and try to shut down the passing game that way? I mean, the front four should be really, really good, able
What's that? Oh, you called me 'girly'
because my name is Gurley...
How original.
to handle whatever running… backs… Georgia…. oh, I forgot about the Bulldogs two headed monster of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall. Both of them are top 5 running backs in a conference that includes Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M (yes, their running backs are really good too), and Mississippi State (MSU is included here simply for the incredible string of running backs that have been produced in recent years). Clemson may have a top 10 run defense this year, but Georgia could be the number 1 rushing attack in the country.

I realize I’m sort of sending mixed signals here, with Clemson potentially being really good this year, and my aspirations for Georgia to go to the SEC Championship. Truthfully, this could be an incredible game if Clemson comes out on fire and the Georgia defense takes its time getting into the game. This could be a disaster for the Bulldogs, but I’m counting on a disappointing end to last year’s season to propel them into this road game with a vengeance.

Clemson 35 - Georgia 38

Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss [27 - 26 Vanderbilt]

Whoa buddy. Let’s just get this season started shall we? Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Both teams are coming off surprisingly solid years as everyone expected the Rebels to roll over and play dead, and Vanderbilt isn’t supposed to put together back to back 9 win seasons ever. Both teams are looking to make improvements again this year, with the opening game being an excellent opportunity to jump out on the right page. Vanderbilt returns a wealth of experience, and just enough talent, while Ole Miss fields a wealth of talent, and just enough experience. Last year’s game was a classic that saw the Commodores eek out a one point win, and this year is shaping up to be another nail biter. Each team is a solid mid range SEC team this year with their sights set on big upsets and miraculous seasons,  but only one can start the year 1 - 0 in the SEC. I know it’s weird for me to not go on and on with a game that has this much potential, but truth is, both of these are “wait and see” teams for me going into this year. Will Vandy’s depth rear its ugly head and hamstring the Commodores? Will Ole Miss be able to develop its sudden burst of talent into a true contender in the SEC? Either way, this game is just the beginning, and my prediction is more of a hope than anything.

Vanderbilt 27 - Ole Miss 24 OT

Mississippi State v. Oklahoma State (neutral site)

Well it has to happen eventually. Oklahoma State is one of like 5 teams favored to win the Big 12 this year as Oklahoma and TCU are also surging and Texas is trying to right a talent heavy ship. The Cowboys are built for speed, and they're built for a lot of future success. They’ve got talent, coaching, experience, and everything else you could want in a football team. They will probably finish just outside the top 10 this year, although they could easily end up a top 10 team. They’ve got loads of talent and experience returning on both sides of the ball and while they may be changing coaches, that hasn’t slowed them down in the past. Mississippi State meanwhile is a team full of untested potential and fingers-crossed hopefuls. The defense is loaded with talent, but an inexperienced secondary could spell doom for the Bulldogs early on. The front four should generate more pressure, and be solid against the run, but they’re just a bit out-classed by Oklahoma State’s offense. If State can pull out a win it will be on the shoulders of the linebackers. They will be called upon to make inhuman plays against the pass, stop the run, and blitz the quarterback, and if they aren’t perfect, this
Here's hoping the Oklahoma State offense has
about as much rhythm as soulless this fan...
could get ugly. The good news is the linebackers are easily the second most talented corps on the team this year, behind a stable of running backs that has the Bulldog offense set for the next three to four years. Speaking of running backs, if the defense pulls off a miracle and stops the Cowboys from putting up ridiculous numbers on offense, it will be the running backs who win this game. They’ve got to eat up both yards and time to give our boys a rest against OSU’s hurry up offense, but they’ve also got to score some points, because you can be sure the Cowboy’s will. If Tyler Russell made similar strides going into this year as he did going into last, he still probably shouldn’t throw the ball much this game. An interception puts the Bulldogs in a huge hole in this game, two would end it. It’s not that I don’t trust Russell to throw good passes, truth is for better or worse I do, I just don’t trust these young receivers to be where they’re supposed to in the opening game on a national stage. It just isn’t going to happen. Who knows though, maybe everything comes together in a way State fans haven’t seen since upsetting Alabama 6 - 3 in Jackson oh so many years ago. More than likely though, I’ll be hiding out at Dragon*Con with a wardrobe of Mississippi State Baseball clothes reliving Trey Porter’s perfectly laced ball into right-center to put State up 5 - 4 against Indiana in the 8th inning of the Bulldog’s game 2 of the CWS. Man, that was a great hit. Kid had been sitting on the bench for weeks, pinch hits a perfect 2-RBI ball. He even held the bat out after his swing, which was textbook. He knew his job was done, and he was going to enjoy that moment. I don’t blame him. Oh yeah, back to football… crap.

Mississippi State 17 - Oklahoma State 35

[ROUND 2... FIGHT!]

(Mr. Hooch) I'll be approaching this week's games a little differently. Thursday night brings us a couple of good games to whet our appetite, so we'll hit those first:

UNC at South Carolina - I have to believe South Carolina will be takin care of business in their season
SHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSHITSHIT!!
opener. UNC is a solid team, but South Carolina has shoved their way into the upper crust of the SEC East, and they do not appear to be planning on taking any steps backwards at the moment. You can expect Clowney's "wow factor" to cause some concerns for UNC's OL and QB, and the result is that the rest of the Gamecock's defense will be very opportunistic when that focus on Clowney presents openings elsewhere.

South Carolina 27 - UNC 17


Ole Miss at Vanderbilt - This is probably one of the games I am most interested in this week for a number of reasons. First off, it's the only in-conference match up in the SEC, so the chips will start to fall one way or another when this is wrapped up. Also, this game is going to tell us a lot about how far the Rebelsharks and the Commodores have come in the off season. Ole Miss had a better than expected season, due in no small part to the Bulldogs rolling over and playing dead for most of the Egg Bowl to let them round out the season with a big win and a bowl game. The 'Dores also had a great season, capped off by their first ever back to back bowl trip. This is a tough choice for me, because my heart wants OM to lose and lose big, but my knowledge of the Vandy of yesteryears tells me they're gonna come up short. Ultimately I think it comes down to the fact that this is Hugh Freeze's second year as head coach and with junior QB Bo Wallace at the helm their offence is going to put up more points than Vandy's.

Ole Miss 28 - Vanderbilt 24


Then we move into the weekend and knock out the rest:

Toledo at Florida - The Toledo Rockets travel to the Swamp in what casual observers would call a David and Goliath match up, but hold the phone, chief! Toledo is playing some of their program's best football to date and this scrappy bunch of Rockets will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, looking to prove their worth against an upper-tier SEC East opponent. Unfortunately for Toledo they will more than likely be outclassed by the athleticism of the Gators. The Gators' secondary put up some solid numbers last season, and virtually all of them are back, so even though they have to reload on the defensive line they will be a tough task to take through the air. Look for at least 2 picks from the Florida defense en route to a double digit win, but the Gators will only pull away late in the game.

Florida 34 - Toledo 17


I didn't know I couldn't do that?
(Hey, it worked for Dave Chapelle...)
Rice at TAMU - The Aggies lead this series an astounding 50-27-3, and the Owls will need more miracles than Jesus pulled off in the entire New Testament to have a prayer at winning this one. This is just gonna be... ugh, man... like, ouch. TAMU will skate and Johnny Autograph Football will return to something of his former glory once his on-field displays make the media forget about his off-season shenanigans. There just isn't a whole lot else to say about this.

(Editor's note: As noted previously, we found out today that Manziel will sit the first half, so I have listed my adjusted prediction below my original one.)

TAMU 45 - Rice 14

Adjusted prediction: TAMU 44 - Rice 14

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas - This is another litmus test of sorts for an SEC team that is rebuilding their program after a disappointing run the last couple of years. Brett Bielema takes over as head coach for the Razorbacks, and from all accounts the players and fans have bought in to his system. There is a lot of LOUDEST) fans in all of college football. While both teams have something to prove with this game, it will be Arkansas that walks away victorious.
Left: Brett Bielema's wife. Right: Brett Bielema and wife.

...I'll take door #1, please.
giddy intensity around the program right now as the Hawgs look to erase memories of last year's abysmal 4 win season. However Razorback fans have not yet forgotten that heartbreaking 34-31 loss to Louisiana-Monroe in overtime last season, and Louisiana-Lafayette comes into this game as a team with much the same build. Their no-huddle, spread offense could have the Hawgs on their heels if they don't come out ready to play and play hard. Arkansas will have the benefit of home field, and the Razorback fans are some of the best (read:

Arkansas 28 - Louisiana-Lafayette 17


Alabama "at" Virginia Tech - AJ McCarron, Amari Cooper and TJ Yeldon... It's true that the Hokies' defense is legit, but Bama's offense is legit-er. There's just no way to shut down the Tide all over the field, so as long as the coaches and AJ make the correct calls and reads this could be a foregone conclusion. Virginia Tech would need to catch Alabama literally asleep on their feet to win this, but being the first game of the season you never know how some teams are going to start out. I realize I said there was a chance the Hokies could sneak up and snatch a win from Bama, but after looking a little deeper I just don't see it happening. The Tide rolls on towards what they hope is their three-peat of National Championships...

Alabama 47 - Virginia Tech 24


Austin Peay at Tennessee - Butch Jones opens his coaching era at Tennessee looking for the program's
Come at me, Austin Peay!
800th win, which would put them in some elite company with only 7 other programs in the country, and only one other SEC program (Alabama), and chances are they'll get it. To say Austin Peay might give Tennessee a run for their money would be a slap in the face, even in Tennessee's current state of disarray. The Governors won only two games last season, a 56-0 shellacking of Culver-Stockton (I also said "Who?") and a 38-31 win over Tennessee Tech. There are quite a few high school teams that could probably give Austin Peay more than they could handle, and although the Vols may be experiencing a slump recently they are still more than stocked to take on the likes of the Governors.

Tennessee 35 - Austin Peay 10


For the best coffee (and signs) in Starkville look no further...
Washington State at Auburn - Auburn plays host to the Cougars in this season opener, but Auburn's new head coach is a familiar face around the Plains. Gus Malzhan was the offensive coordinator at Auburn from 09-11, which by all accounts were the halcyon days for this particular set of SEC Tigers who went winless in conference last year for the first time since 1980. However Washington State is in their second year under another noteworthy head coach, Mike Leach. Bulldog fans will recognize the name Ellis Johnson, who is Auburn's defensive coordinator, and that should help improve the defensive stats somewhat. Auburn's offense will likely be anchored by Tre Mason, who is a legitimate threat for the Cougars' defense. JUCO transfer Nick Marshall is no Cam Newton, but then again I doubt he... his dad... his church... oh you get the idea. SOMEBODY got a $180,000 hand out. Regardless, Auburn should handle Washington State handily an walk away with 1/3 of their total win count from last season.

Auburn 34 - Washington State 21


WKU at Kentucky - The Hilltoppers face the Wildcats, and both teams are sporting new, high profile coaches this season. Mark Stoops leads the 'Cats while Bobby Petrino is the mastermind behind WKU's new look. Last season WKU handed Kentucky a heartbreaking 32-31 overtime loss last season at Commonwealth Stadium, and you can be certain the Wildcats intend to get a taste of revenge this time around. Antonio Andrews and the Hilltoppers don't plan on making it easy, though. The senior running back led his team to the school's first ever bowl game tallying 1728 rushing yards and a whopping 3161 all purpose yards. Can the Wildcats' defense shut down a Petrino offense that has shifted from a ground and pound approach to focus more on the passing game? Mr. Hooch thinks they can, at least well enough to pull off the win...

Kentucky 28 - WKU 21


Murray State at Missouri - If not for the injury bug ravaging the Missouri offensive line it's possible that the third? fourth? set of Tigers from the SEC could have managed wins against Vandy and maybe Florida, and winning either of those would've had the Tigers bowling in the post season. Alas, this was not the case, but last season's woe's could be this season's WOO's! for Missouri. They return a host of experience on the offensive line and, injuries not withstanding, that should bolster their somewhat lackluster offense this time around. Meanwhile the Racers and new QB (and Ole Miss transfer) Maikhail Miller will be airing out the ball at almost every opportunity. They averaged 51 passing attempts per game, and completed 69% of them. Those aren't numbers to scoff at... still, SEC newbies or not, Missouri outclasses Murray State all over the field, and this will just be a warm up game for the Tigers.

Missouri 35 - Murray State 10


Georgia at Clemson - No cupcake game for Georgia to open the season... Clemson is coming off an 11-2 outing last year, including a 25-24 win over perennial SEC powerhouse LSU in the Peach Bowl. The Tigers
GRR, BABY! VERY GRRR!
will look to add another win over an SEC opponent to kick their season off, and if they get one it could be the beginning of a legit run at the BCS Championship Game. Clemson's two losses were at the hands of South Carolina and FSU, which basically means they didn't just get lucky last season, they were damn good, and they will field a team that is much the same this season. Georgia is no slouch either, however. Both teams boast strong QB's and offenses, so the "offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" will certainly be true here, as the winner will be off on their way to a possible National Championship appearance. This is a really tough call to make... if it were in Georgia I would definitely give the Dawgs the nod, although I still think it would be close. However playing on the road at Clemson is going to be a tough test early for Georgia. Will they be able to handle it? I think so, but one lucky/unlucky break could change the face of this game.

Georgia 21 - Clemson 17


LSU at TCU - This one is likely to be a defensive slugfest, and that will likely favor LSU as TCU's corp of linebackers is relatively inexperienced. Both offenses should be in good shape, especially since the Horned Frogs will have their star QB and feature RB back in the lineup. LSU lost several players to the NFL draft, but by virtue of the fact that they've been winning consistently in the SEC for a number of years there is no shortage of elite players waiting to step up and deliver. This is another SEC/Big-12 matchup, as is Oklahoma State v MSU this opening weekend, so there is a lot of conference pride on the line as well. This will be one of the more interesting games to watch this weekend, and I hate that for Big-12 fans because they're going to tune in to watch one of their teams get worked over by a stronger, faster, more athletic team. Although the disparity isn't as extreme as say Rice v Texas A&M, the difference in talent level is there, and it will become more readily apparent as the game wears on.

LSU 24 - TCU 17


MSU "at" Oklahoma State - And last but CERTAINLY not least, there's our game. At first blush most of the country would say Oklahoma State will win this one walking away. But Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs might have something to say about that. The Cowboys enter the season as a popular pick to win the Big-12 and there's certainly no shortage of talent on the roster, although there are some questions.

For starters there appears to be a bit of a quarterback controversy, as neither JW Walsh or Clint Chelf have stepped up as the clear leader. Be that as it may, MSU's secondary is talented but inexperienced, and the
An oldie but a goodie.
Dat smirk...
Cowboys will definitely be testing the MSU defense through the air early and often. OSU has some solid receivers that could give this young secondary headaches, and double teaming a receiver like Josh Stewart isn't an option when it opens up passing lanes for Tracy Moore or Rashaad Sample. Like it or not you can expect to see this young secondary get burned a few times during the course of the game, so it's best just to hope that when they do get beat they don't let it turn into 6 points or 50 yards in a single play. Luckily for the Bulldogs, the Cowboys will be replacing 1400 yard rusher Joseph Randle, and MSU's defensive line should be stout, meaning they will plan to more or less shut down the run and make OSU try to beat them through the air.

For the Dawgs the offense should look pretty familiar. 5th year senior Tyler Russel returns, along with the best little running back nobody knows, LaDarius Perkins. State also returns 4 starters to the offensive line, including Gabe Jackson who is just an absolute beast. You can expect this O line to push the Cowboys around and open up some nice holes for the ground game, which sets up nicely for some play action passing to break a big play every now and then. With new defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer OSU plans to employ the blitz much more this season, but the Bulldog's O line should be able to manage for the most part.

Ultimately this game may turn into a bit of a barn-burner, with both offenses capable of scoring early and often. The difference will be which team can come up with a couple big stops on 3rd and short yardage or goal line/red zone situations. In that department I would give the nod to MSU, questionable secondary or not. Turnovers could make or break this game for either club. I expect there will be at least 1 pick through the air for both teams, so field position when that happens is going to be a huge factor.

This is a hard one for me to call, and although some of that may be due to my personal bias, I'm just not sold on Oklahoma State being that much better than a middle-tier SEC team. I know I may regret it, but it's the beginning of the season and anything could happen, so I choose to believe for the time being. We will see what that's worth on Saturday...

MSU 35 - Oklahoma State 28


And thus we have come to the end of the first regular season installment of House of Hooch! I hope you've all enjoyed reading as much as I've enjoyed writing. Be sure to check back next week for a weekend recap (tentatively scheduled, as vacation comes first) and next week's previews! Also share us with your friends on Facebook, Twitter and Google+ by clicking the buttons at the top of the page. Thanks for checking us out, an until next time, #HailState and #GoDawgs!!!

Friday, August 23, 2013

Preseason SEC Preview! Now with 50% more "Pre"! PRE!!!

Time to dust off all your favorite old cliches, kids! There's work to be done! We're closing in on college football faster than a girl trying to un-tag herself from unflattering facebook photos! (clearly our alliteration could use some work, too) We are just under a week away from that euphoric wave that washes over us on Saturdays in the fall, college football and opening kickoff. So it's time to give the grill a quick once over, check the tailgating equipment and pull out the team gear!

There's not much to say as everyone is currently sporting an undefeated record, but somehow we managed to say a lot! Last season began terrifically, and ended tragically. However the chances of our beloved Bulldogs going 7-0 to start this season are not as promising this time around. Still, you never know what can happen on any given Saturday, so let's take a quick run through the SEC and see how everybody is shaping up, shall we?


Alabama - We may as well start with the elephant in the room, no? Preseason favorite, aGAIN. "They're a dynasty in the making." "They don't rebuild, they reload." "They're masters of their own destiny." "They're good!" "I hate them..."  (ok that last one may just be my opinion) The Crimson Tide are the SEC equivalent of the Dallas Cowboys of old (or late, really), the 90's Chicago Bulls or the early 2000's Detroit Red Wings... in other words, teams I love to hate. I wish I could say they won't be that good, but I try to accept reality for what it is, so my take on their season is that they will go anywhere from 10-2 to 12-0. The two possible losses in my mind are Texas A&M (although you'd be a fool not to think that Bama is foaming at the mouth to get a little redemption after last year's debacle) and LSU, although there's an outside chance that Virginia Tech could catch them off guard early.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks have a favorable start to their schedule this season, with the ability to tune up throughout their first three games before travelling to New Jersey to face a Rutgers team that stunned them last season. I'm predicting a 4-5 game skid starting with Rutgers or Texas A&M, though, which will be a big test for this team. Can they keep their heads up through the tough stretch mid-season? I'm looking at anywhere from 5-7 to 7-5 for the final record for the Hawgs. What you got?

Auburn - Auburn and Arkansas were both reeling after disappointing seasons last year, so there are several
Gus Malzahn practicing his bird calls...
questions that need to be answered before anyone can get a solid read on these teams. That said, Auburn's schedule gives them (along with a few other SEC teams) a good litmus test in their game against Washington State. The War Eagle Tiger Animal Things should win games against Red Wolves, Catamounts and Owls, but that's where the gravy train ends. Look for Auburn to go in the neighborhood of 4-8 to 6-6.

Florida - Florida is still not the Florida of Steve Spurrier's hay-day but they are definitely getting back to form. After a 2 year hiatus the Gators returned to some semblance of the Spurrier and/or Meyer eras. This year you can expect to see more improvement as they get to avoid Alabama and Texas A&M this time around. That should lend itself nicely to a more favorable run down the schedule, which means to me that the Gators can look to go somewhere around 8-4 to 10-2.

Insert inappropriate comment about
doggy style here. Giggity.
Georgia - Getting Missouri and Auburn is a lucky draw for the eastern Bulldogs as they also get to avoid Bama and the Aggies. The time may be right for Georgia to make another legitimate run at the SEC title and thereby a National Title, not that they weren't a few minutes and a few yards short of that last year... I think they will open up going 1-1 through their first two games against Clemson and South Carolina. Getting LSU in Athens is a good thing but will it be enough to get the win? Ultimately I'm seeing something along the lines of 9-3 to 11-1.

Kentucky - The Wildcats are replacing Joker Phillips with Mark Stoops, and they're hoping like hell that energizes this lackluster team and ignites a spark in 2013. Still, this is a tough schedule for a team that isn't equipped to deal with the likes of Alabama or Louisville, so don't expect a miracle. Kentucky goes 3-9, MAYBE 5-7, tops.

LSU -  The Tigahs, however, are poised for another top 10 season this year, provided they don't take a step back on the defensive side of the ball. The offence should be at least slightly improved over last year's team, and LSU has done well enough in regular season games and recruiting over the last several years to have a healthy stable of athletes ready to take over at any given position. The most likely losses for the Bayou Bengals this season would result from games at Georgia and Alabama, and possibly when they host the Aggies. Look for LSU to go around the 9-3 to 11-1 range.

Mississippi State - As much as I'd like to say how MSU is also poised to burst onto the scene of the top 25 landscape, it's just not very likely this season. Going in to the fifth year of the Dan Mullen era the Bulldogs are doing fairly well in the recruiting and red shirting game, and that's going to be paying dividends going forward, but there's still a lot of ground to cover. Life in the SEC west is never easy, either, and barring some sort of miracle in the form of breakout players (plural, one just won't do it) or incredibly lucky breaks the Dawgs are looking at very probable losses to Alabama, LSU, South Carolina and Texas A&M. The swing games on the schedule are Oklahoma State to start the season (and this will tell us a LOT about how prepared we are for the tougher in-conference games this season), Auburn, Bowling Green and Arkansas. Probable wins appear in the form of Alcorn, Troy and Kentucky.
Projected look for north endzone once expansion is complete.
Don't mind the ghosts...

Now, if MSU manages to give Ok. State a good, close game or per chance even walk away with a 'W' then spirits will be very high among the fan base for the next two weeks leading up to another swing game at Auburn. But even if the Bulldogs run the table in their first four games the biscuit wheels will likely be falling off the gravy train when LSU comes calling. And that's just the first half of the season... November proves to be a brutal month almost every year for the Dawgs, and this year is no different with back to back games facing South Carolina, Texas A&M and Bama.

One exciting note, though. The Egg Bowl has returned to Thanksgiving Day! I personally love this as it's great exposure for the schools and the SEC being (I believe) the only college football played that day. And regardless of how both teams perform leading up to this annual slugfest it's sure to be a great game with a lot of pride on the line, and more than likely one or both schools will be vying for that all-important 6th win to become bowl eligible. Speaking of bowl games, I DO think the Dawgs go bowling again this year, even if it's a lower tier bowl. So my prediction for Mississippi State this year is that they will go in the neighborhood of 6-6 to 8-4. And 8-4 would be miraculous in my opinion as it would likely include wins over Ok. State, Auburn, Arkansas and/or Ole Miss.

Missouri - Mizzou struggle mightily in the first run through the SEC, plagued by injuries and bad luck, but they still managed to reel off 8 wins. They will benefit from having Alabama roll off the schedule this year, and hosting home games against some of the tougher foes like Florida, South Carolina and TAMU. That being said, I expect the Tigers to perform at about the same level this year, perhaps slightly improved. Therefore, my prediction is that Missouri will end up with something like 7-5 or 8-4.

It's a liger-rebel-shark... It's pretty much the worst mascot.
Ole Miss - The Rebels are as schizophrenic a team as I have seen in the last 5 years, and I'm not just talking about their mascot-psychosis. When you expect a good season from them they fold like a cheap suit. When you're not expecting anything from them they... well... they don't exactly STUN you with amazing performances, but they win games they shouldn't, even if it's incredibly ugly to watch. Looking at their schedule this year I expect them to be around 4-4 going in to November, and with three swing games in that month (Missouri, Arkansas and MSU) anything could happen down the stretch. With any luck they will have secured their sixth win against Troy, but again, these Rebelsharks could underwhelm throughout the season and limp into the Egg Bowl looking for a 6th (or even 5th) win. There's just no way of knowing, but I'm paid (very little) to tell you what I think will happen, so here it is. The School Up North will wrap up around 5-7 to 7-5.

South Carolina - The Gamecocks went 11-2 last season, and they have what I would call a fairly favorable schedule to repeat that level of performance. True they are having to reload at a number of positions, but
CLLLICK!
then again Jadaveon Clowney. Yes, he's that good. If the Cocks can avoid tripping up on road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee they are looking at what is likely an 8-1 schedule when they square off against Florida this season.Georgia, Florida and Clemson are the most likely suspects to add a tick in the loss column for South Carolina, but I'm thinking they will win at least one of those, if not two. It's going to be a banner year in Columbia this year, as the Cocks are looking at 9-3 to 11-1 being their final tally.

Tennessee - Derek Dooley is out and Butch Jones is in at Tennessee, and the Vols are hoping Jones can turn around the depressing trend of losing over the last few seasons. Tennessee is totally decimated, talent-wise. They actually have solid players on both sides of the ball manning their lines, and as any fan will tell you, strong lines can be the anchor of a solid offense/defense. The question is basically everywhere else on the field. There are a lot of unknowns and unprovens wearing the burnt orange this season, so bearing in mind they went 5-7 last season, look for the Vols to drop in around 5-7 to 6-6. Going bowling would be a major coup for Tennessee this year.

Texas A&M - So I have to admit, I vastly underestimated what the Aggies would do in their first season in the SEC last year. But to be fair, there aren't many true freshman quarterbacks in the entire history of college football who could do what Johnny Autograph did. A&M was a solid team, top to bottom, and their only losses were to Florida to start the season (first games can be shaky, which is why the Ok. State/MSU game is going to be a big indicator) and LSU at the halfway point. They didn't lose again, and they played Alabama in the second half of that season, as well as defeating the Oklahoma Sooners in the Cotton Bowl. TAMU replaces a significant portion of their defense which could affect their results, but they still look to be in very good shape barring any injuries or incidents. (At the time of writing this entry we are assuming Manziel will still be eligible for the season, autograph shenanigans notwithstanding) Look for the Aggies to go 10-2 (losses would be Bama and LSU most likely) to 12-0.

Vanderbilt - I have tried to wrap my head around this team, but I just can't. We will know a hell of a lot more about Vandy after they open the season against Ole Miss, but again, depending on which Rebelshark team takes the field that day the true barometer might be the South Carolina game in week 3. James Franklin has done an outstanding job taking the Dores to back to back bowl games for the first time in... hold on lemme check my numbers here... oh, here it is, NEVER. Last season marks the first time the Commodores ever attended back to back bowl games. That's a strong start to a head coaching gig. Can Franklin and his team capture and continue to use that momentum to raise the bar, or will there be an inevitable backslide? My gut tells me Vandy will go 5-7, even though they won 8 regular season games last year. So considering that, I'll put Vandy at 6-6 to 8-4, and another historic bowl game attendance record will probably enough for James Franklin to get his own Bear Bryant-esque statue in Nashville.

...and that does it for us up here in the booth! Just in time, too, because it's HALFTIME!!!! (I would've inserted a gif from Ace Ventura but gifsoup is the slowest, shittiest site ever)

*halftime festivities and shenanigans*
*commercial break*
*bathroom dash*

...everybody back now? Good!

Mr. Hooch: Welcome back to the second half of our preseason SEC preview! We now go live to our man on the scene, Professor D! Professor, what month is it? What does that mean? What are you doing? Why didn't you do it earlier? And most importantly, whatcha got for us on the SEC college football front?

Great catch. Great season. Great job, Diamond Dogs!
(Professor D): So it’s August and that means I’m running around doing all the stuff I should’ve done a month ago to get ready for a new school year and everything that comes with it, one of which, is football season. Oh boy. As a Mississippi State fan I’m going to keep wearing my College World Series hat and relieving Hunter Renfroe’s at the wall catch against Oregon State, or Wes Rea’s double against Indiana. Then I’ll peek my head out to watch the Oklahoma State (Oh look, another OSU!) game and, if I’m being honest, probably go back to reminiscing about Adam Frazier’s career .500 batting average in three SEC tournaments. Yeah, I’m pretty apathetic about football season this year, for a lot of reasons, starting with...


Alabama. 2012 Record: 13-1

Shit. Just shit. Yeah, the SEC won another championship but did it have to be the Crimson Tide? I really hate those @$$ #073$. Preseason favorites? Wow didn’t see that one coming. Sure Nick Saban might be the greatest college football coach of all time but why does he have to be at the school with the absolute worst fans in the history of sports? Yeah, those crazy Italians who boo their own player cause he’s black, or those Egyptians who shoot opposing teams fans when they lose a game, still not as bad as Alabama fans.
This dedicated Bama fan has eaten a double
cheeseburger basket for every win on the Bama
schedule since he was old enough to count to
3... he's now counting to 4, and hopes to make it
all the way to 5 by next Christmas!
The worst part is, the SEC is using the expansion as an excuse to pad their schedule. For the second year in a row Alabama will not play Georgia, South Carolina, or Florida. Or a suddenly relevant Vanderbilt for that matter! In two years Alabama has played Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky from the SEC East. Are. You. Joking. I’m sick of the SEC defending its top teams (I’m looking at you Kentucky Basketball). Did you see the SEC championship last year? Think about that game and imagine if the Tide had to play South Carolina, Florida, or Georgia in the regular season. If they did, my money is Alabama isn’t in the national championship, and yeah, that may mean the SEC streak comes to an end, but it’s fair. I realize as a State fan our permanent rival is perennial bottom dweller Kentucky, but come on. In 2012 LSU had to face South Carolina and Florida. This year they get Georgia and Florida. How is this fair? Whatever SEC, have some confidence in your programs to take care of business and stop picking favorites in the off season. That said, yeah, Alabama’s schedule probably means they run the table again in the SEC West, but you better believe LSU and Texas A&M will be giving them everything they’ve got, because Les Miles is about as sick of the SEC scheduling practices as anyone. I’m not even going to bother to predict a W-L for the Tide because I probably would just give up on this year if I did. “But Professor, Alabama has to play Virginia Tech to open the season!” Yeah, and last year they had Michigan. Virginia Tech went 7-6 last year and their starting running back got kicked off the team this offseason. I’m done.

Arkansas 2012 Record: 4-8

Arkansas fans should take notes from Mississippi State last season. The Razorbacks have a pretty good shot
This is not the kind of fire Razorback
country wants to see this year...
of starting the season 4-0, but they could end it anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5. The pivotal game for me is week 4 against Rutgers. If the Scarlet Knights make a shish kabob out of the little piggies then hold tight, because the next 8 games are in the SEC. Past the first four the only real chances Arkansas has of picking up a win are Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss, and from what I’ve seen so far, I’ll give them one of those three after opening 4-0 for a final record of 5-7. I could be wrong though, you never know what team is going to catch fire in the SEC and end up in 3rd place. (Editor's note: and you never know what KIND of fire is going to catch way up there in Arkansas...)

Auburn 2012 Record: 3-9

I’d love to see Auburn stay on the bottom of the SEC West for a few more years, but the reality is they’ve still got a couple top 5 recruiting classes that have been in development, and I think pure talent will carry them back into the middle of the pack in the SEC this year. For the Tigers, it all starts and ends with the quarterback. They never really found a reliable passer to take the pressure off of a decent run game, and that cost them plenty of games last year. This year is shaping up for more of the same, but in my opinion the Tigers made a serious coaching upgrade to Gus Malzahn. With Malzahn at the helm I look for Auburn’s offense to take an immediate step forward, so the questions for me are mostly on defense. Can the Tigers stop from ending up in a shoot out every game? We’ll see. For Auburn I see the pivotal games being against Mississippi State and Arkansas. There are other opportunities to pick up SEC wins against Tennessee and Ole Miss, but the State game in week three should set the tone for Auburn’s season, much as it has the past four years. Closing the season out against Georgia and Alabama means Tennessee may be Auburn’s last chance at a bowl game. I think I’m going to pick Auburn at 6-6 this year, but I’m not telling you the losses, cause with Mississippi State, Arkansas State, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Tennessee on the schedule, well, I’m just not dumb enough to pick those just yet.

Florida 2012 Record: 11-2

The Gators may have lost a bowl game against Louisville last year, but man did they make the Cardinals wish they’d stayed home. It seemed like every play a Gator was knocking some poor Louisville player out. I was
BOOP!
"Hey ref! He got my nose!!!"
really impressed with the Gator’s toughness last year. The defense was really something special, and although they lost a load of it to the NFL, you can expect to see more of the same from this unit as they, like the-team-that-shall-not-be-named, will simply reload players for another run. Once again the big question for Florida is on offense. Last year’s offensive line couldn’t hold together long enough to get the Gator’s offense going, and it could be the same story this year. I look for Florida to remain stagnant this year, easily top 3 in the SEC East, but not quite ready to take that extra step forward Georgia took last year. It scares me to do this, but I’m going to give Vanderbilt the preseason benefit of the doubt (because really, how often do we get a chance to do that?) and call Florida’s season at 8-4.

Georgia 2012 Record: 12-2

How about the Georgia Bulldogs? Last year they had a ferocious defense and a freshman running back tandem that would make the Devil (read: Saban) himself jealous. Sure they may have lost some talent on defense, but they’ve got plenty of replacements on that side of the ball, and those two freshman running backs? Well now they’re sophomores, with a whole season of experience under their belt. Which should make anyone that compares last year’s Georgia-Missouri and Georgia-Alabama games drool in anticipation. So that about wraps up what you can expect out of Georgia this season right? Right?!?! No? But what could I possibly be missing? Oh yeah, a Heisman-watch quarterback who threw for 3893 yards with a 64% completion percentage and a passer rating of 174.8.

Georgia. Wat R U doin? Georgia. Stahp.

Seriously though, these guys are far and away my favorites in the SEC and I look forward to a Georgia v. You-Know-Who match up to end the season. The only thing stopping me from calling the Bulldogs at 12-0 is that they open the year with Clemson and South Carolina (SEC scheduling is a sick, sick joke. I hate them. Seriously). I think Georgia takes at least one loss from those two teams as they break in some new linebackers, but if that juggernaut offense can get them out of a jam I look for Georgia to run the table in the East with LSU and Florida the only real opponents left in their way. 11-1. I feel like I should also go ahead and say I predict Georgia to win the SEC Championship this year.

Wait, what? You fired me for that!?!
This is a FOOTBALL!
I coach FOOTBALL!!!
*sigh* God I hate Kentucky....
Kentucky 2012 Record: 2-10

I’m going to be honest, football is way down the list of things that come to mind when I look at the word “Kentucky.” There’s those awful games against Mississippi State in basketball (both the SEC Tournament Championship and the regular season water bottle matchup/fiasco. We were up by like 14 and they called 8 shooting fouls against us!!!! That was stupid ridiculous!!!! Damn it I’m angry again....), last year’s sweep of the (then 5th ranked) Wildcats on the last weekend of the regular season in baseball, and finally this year’s series loss (by three inches) in baseball. Yeah, football just hasn’t been Kentucky’s sport the past few years, and I don’t see that changing under new head coach Mark Stoops. To say the Wildcats were bad last year would be an understatement, winning just two games total and none in SEC play. The good news is the defensive line should be pretty good, and the quarterback play should improve. The bad news is those quarterbacks (currently 3 competing for starting time) don’t really have anyone to throw to, or a running back to take the pressure off (they only have 2 on the entire roster thanks to injuries). I’m not even going to bother predicting important non-conference games for these guys as quite frankly, they all are, because Kentucky shouldn’t be expecting many wins in SEC play. In conference the only winnable games are Missouri and Tennessee, and I wouldn’t count on either of them. There is of course always the chance of an upset against Mississippi State or Vanderbilt, but don’t hold your breath. I’m picking the Wildcats to finish 3-9. Hey, that’s improvement for these guys.

LSU 2012 Record: 10-3

Well folks, LSU wasn’t picked to finish in the top 5 nationally or even the top 2 in the SEC West this year. That means we’re all chomping at the bit to finally get a little payback against these guys right?! If so, I hope you have good dental, because I’m calling bull shit on LSU’s preseason ranking. Yeah, maybe this won’t be the same Tiger team we saw slug it out with Alabama the past three times they’ve met, but that doesn’t mean they won’t win a bunch of games. Best I can tell the analysts are counting on a tough schedule (have I said enough about this? No. The SEC scheduling practices are ridiculous, bordering on cheating) and a “depleted” defense to take LSU down a few pegs. Hehe, yeah I remember the good ol’ days too, reading similar stories about Alabama’s defense having growing pains going into last year. Good times. The fact is, LSU is a powerhouse. Like Alabama, LSU is seeing levels of talent (both coaching and playing) unheard of in college sports. We probably need a new word for schools like those two in college football actually (Yeah, I know, Alabama gets Dynasty, but truth is if it wasn’t them it would be LSU). I look for the Tigers to come back hard on defense, maybe not up to last year’s standards, but enough to let the offense score
Les Miles has a promising career as an Elvis impersonator
if his coaching gig doesn't pan out...
points and win games. “Score points? But Professor D! This is LSU, they don’t really score a whole lot of points do they?” Well sure the Tigers have been a run-first offense in the past, preferring to wear down opponents before outright violating them in the 4th quarter, but this year might be different, and it all starts with the offensive line. You guys remember Mississippi State’s amazing season in 2009? Remember what we learned that year? A good, experienced, offensive line, not a great quarterback or a great running back, is the key to putting up good numbers on offense, and LSU will have just that in 2013. They return 4 starters from last years line to protect thus-far-underachieving quarterback Zach Mettenberger and open up running lanes for who-cares-they-are-all-huge-please-don’t-injure-our-linebackers. Worse news for opponents is Les Miles went out and got himself an NFL offensive coordinator to call the shots on a new scheme that should better take advantage of Mettenberger’s strengths. And they kept most of their receiving corps from last year too. Not enough for you? Running backs (I swear LSU grows them on a farm somewhere, and they are definitely GM). Remember last year when everybody kept pointing out that Blue was injured and LSU didn’t have a top guy to run the football? Didn’t matter, cause the offensive line (that’s coming back, I remind you), opened up holes big enough that Tyler Russell could have put up 100 yard rushing games. The only thing stopping LSU from a Western Division/SEC/National championship is the same thing that’s stopping everyone in the SEC. Ala-freakin-bama (Go Georgia!). Texas A&M? Maybe, but I’m not ready to bet on it just yet. I’m gonna say the Tigers to pick up double digit wins for the fourth year in a row and go 10-2. Oh yeah, one last thought. That “top guy” running back last year’s preseason analysts were freaking out over because he was gonna miss the season? He’s back.

Ole Miss 2012 Record: 7-6

Go to hell.

Seriously though, Hugh Freeze recruits by telling high schoolers he fears for their souls if they go to Mississippi State and that Dan Mullen is an honest to god heathen. Go to hell. I cross my fingers the NCAA finds foul play in their recruiting and hammers them to hell for it. Have I used “hell” enough yet? No? Go to hell Ole Miss. Now to the important things.

Well State fans, it was fun while it lasted, but Ole Miss is officially off the bottom of the SEC West. The real question is who will replace them (please be Auburn please be Auburn please be Auburn)? The whatever-you-call-thems (yeah I’m still doing that) have all the skill players on offense this year with the return of Bo Wallace, Jeff Scott, and Donte Moncrief. Add to that the four members of the offensive line that return and you’ve got a recipe for one darn good offense. The defense on the other hand is a little suspect. Hugh Freeze will be required to play a lot more freshman on that side of the ball than most SEC coaches would care too.
Who knew the Woodchuck could dance??
Lucky for him he’s got a top 10 recruiting class to pull from. So let’s recount: Starting experience on offensive line, full set of skill players, and loads of talent on defense. Sounds pretty good right? Yup, and it could play out that way for sure, paying off with as many as 9 wins and bowl game to push them to 10. Wow, what a year. Thing is though, I don’t buy it. As good as Ole Miss’ team could be this year, that’s as bad as the Re... Black... oh whatever’s season could go. The defense is fresh. Sure there’s talent but Ole Miss opens their season against a more seasoned, veteran Vanderbilt team (although the two do share similar strengths and weaknesses), followed by a cupcake, Texas, bye week, then Alabama. If everything falls into place Ole Miss could for sure go 3-1 in that stretch, but that new defense raises questions. Vanderbilt, Texas, and Alabama will all come out swinging and I don’t think they can hold up. I think 1-3 is more likely than 3-1, but I’ll split it and call 2-2 for the first four. The best news Ole Miss gets this season is their schedule is a walk in the park by SEC standards, with the only tough stretch being four games against Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU. This is the critical part of the schedule, because despite returning four starters and all that talent on defense, the thing that will eventually define Ole Miss’ season is depth, and they don’t have it. There just aren’t any backups to fill injury holes on the Offensive line, and beyond the probable starters, experience and talent are hard to come by on defense. Those four games could take a physical toll, one the whatever’s aren’t built to recover from. They don’t have to win many of those four, infact 1 would be enough, but they’ve got to escape with the team intact to finish out the winnable games at the end of the season, closing with Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State. I’m not buying the hype this year. I think Ole Miss takes a step forward, but it won’t be the kind that results in high win numbers. I call the whatchamacallit’s season at 6-6.

Missouri 2012 Record: 5-7

Missouri will probably take a couple steps forward as a team this year. Unfortunately, this is the SEC, everyone takes a couple steps forward each year (Except Auburn and Arkansas). Mississippi State has improved by leaps and bounds the past four years and still haven’t managed to crack the top 3 in the SEC, and look at how long it took South Carolina and Arkansas. It takes a long while chipping away to earn your way to the top in the SEC, and Missouri just hasn’t put in the work yet. I’ll take a step back from picking on the Tigers (although seriously, three Tigers is enough, let’s make Auburn the War Eagles again please?) this year and say I think they’ll get there, just not this year.

Last year Mizzou had just about the worst injury record of anyone in the country (except for maybe Kentucky) and while that killed them then, it could turn out to be a blessing this year, as they return plenty of experience on both the offensive and defensive lines. They also get a much easier schedule this year, well, sort of. See they’ve got what I’m gonna start callin’ the State 2012 schedule. The Tigers could easily (ish) start off the season 4-0 and not win another game. After opening against 4 cupcakes they get, in a row, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. Sure Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are winnable, but they are also, you know, not. I’ll give Pinkle some credit and call the Tiger’s season at 6-6. Don’t worry kitten, you’ll get there.

South Carolina 2012 Record: 11-2

Oh man is South Carolina going to be interesting. They had a great showing in their bowl game against Michigan (I’ll give you a moment to remember that Gator Bowl... done? Alright back to it) but ignore that one game and remember the rest of South Carolina’s season. Part of the big three in the SEC East, South Carolina did well last season, but they featured a run game that was often suspect, a thin defense (relative to Georgia, Florida, LSU, and those other @$$ hats), and a really good passing game. Too bad most of those receivers are gone, as are the running backs from an already mediocre rushing attack. What’s more is the
HOU-AHH!!!
defense that gave up big games last year lost the entire linebacker corps as well as a starting safety. “But Professor D! They’ve still got Clowney don’t they!” Oh sure they’ve got Clowney, but while one player may be able to carry a team on offense (Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel) it’s much tougher to do on defense. Especially should the standout get injured. The real good news going into this year is that the Gamecocks return starting quarterback Connor Shaw and veteran backup Dylan Thompson. The bad news is the schedule. South Carolina starts the year off hard with North Carolina, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Then they go against a pretty soft middle with UCF, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi State (sure, we could be part of the tough back stretch for the Gamecocks, but we’ve to to perform before I put us there). If the Gamecocks can open up without any injuries they should be in good shape to close out the year with their Big 3 status still in shape (albeit the consensus third of the group). Overall I think South Carolina will take a step back this year, although I’m counting on Steve Spurrier’s magic to keep it from affecting the win loss record too bad, going 8-4, maybe even 9-3, but I think they’ll be subject to a couple of good upsets, earning one back in an upset of their own.

Tennessee 2012 Record: 5-7

Oh Tennessee. I really though the Volunteers had a decent shot last year, but a defense that couldn’t stop my high school football team from scoring doomed them to one heck of a disappointing season. I really like Derek Dooley. I really wish he had a better chance at Tennessee, but the truth is, he had pieces and just never did anything with it. Lucky for the new head coach Butch Jones the Volunteers return a stellar offensive line and a dangerous rushing attack. Even the loss of star quarterback Tyler Bray and one hell of a receiving corps shouldn’t dappen fans spirits too much. That offense didn’t win them too many games anyway. The defence was okay at best, but injuries and questionable coaching took that okay defense and made it atrocious. All of that comes together to paint an okay-but-not-great picture for the Volunteers. To be honest I’m not sure if the schedule is a strength or an asset. True they play five stellar teams in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Oregon, and a couple middle-of-the-roaders in Vanderbilt and.... well probably Auburn, Missouri, or Kentucky will turn out better than expected. Overall I’m gonna call Tennessee to repeat last years record at 5-7 in what hopefully Volunteer fans will remember as a rebuilding season.

Texas A&M 2012 Record: 11-2

Last year Texas A&M shocked the SEC with the unbelievable athleticism of Johnny Football, going 11-2 and knocking off eventual National Champion Alabama in what was, for me, the most fun game of the season. Man that was great, and everything I’m reading says if Manziel is eligible, the Aggies should do it again. Hmmm. I just don’t know. Texas A&M had an unbelievable offense last year, mainly because they just didn’t go backwards, and truthfully, you almost didn’t want them to. The Aggies were actually more dangerous on 2nd or 3rd and long than they were in short down situations. Manziel mostly just passed for a
Was Manziel's first season lucky, good, or both?
couple of yards here and there, or handed it off to running back Ben Malena (averaged almost 6 yards per carry, which is just stupid) for a few short gains. It was when they were beaten Johnny Football really starred. He was downright lethal in long yardage situations, somehow managing to escape pressure, find open receivers, or mysteriously end up ten yards ahead of the closest defender. So why am I apprehensive about jumping on the Texas A&M bandwagon this year? The trenches. Texas A&M started the same five offensive lineman every game last year, and not all of them are coming back. What’s more, the Aggies will also have to replace most of their front seven on defense, and while that unit wasn’t the most effective on the team, they still kept Texas A&M in games long enough for that offense to do something unbelievable. Speaking of offense, the Aggies also lose three of their top four receivers (although not the star, Mike Evans). Good thing their replacements are pretty much all four star recruits. In summary, yeah, Texas A&M could be just as good as advertised, but the combination of new defensive linemen, new linebackers, new receivers, new offensive linemen, and a whole conference of defensive coordinators with experience against their offense, means this could be a tough year for the Aggies. Of course all of this depends on Manziel (what an ass he’s turned out to be) being eligible to play this year. If not, oh man it could get rough. Without Manziel, I think A&M goes between 5-7 and 7-5, split it and call them 6-6. If Johnny Football can play though, I think the Aggies get up to 10-2 again this year, losing the tiebreaker to LSU for second in the SEC West. 

Vanderbilt 2012 Record: 9-4

There are three teams I’m really going to be pulling for this year: Mississippi State (of course), Georgia, and Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt took a huge step forward going 9-4 last year and James Franklin has become one of
the hot names in the world of College Football. I would really like for them to keep moving forward and have another 8 or 9 win regular season, but unfortunately I just don’t think it’s going to happen. This is going to be one of those reviews where I really hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see it right now. Vanderbilt won a lot of games last year thanks to some true veteran leadership on offense, never feeling like they had lost a game until the final seconds ticked. They knew their jobs and executed well. This year the Commodores will have to find a way to repeat that level of confidence. The defensive line particularly will need some relief from its freshman and sophomores as they return just one of last year’s starters. Vanderbilt’s front seven isn’t overly athletic, so they’ll have to rely on depth to consistently win games, and depth is not something Vanderbilt is known for. The good news on defense is most of the secondary (one of the best in the country) will return for another year. If the front seven can do their job, the Commodores will be stout on defense, allowing the offense to put up some wins. It helps, of course, that the offense will be lead by one of the best receiving corps in the nation. They return a whole slew of starters who showed star power last year, and may get some production out of the talented freshman and sophomores Vandy has recruited under Franklin. The two big questions on offense are quarterback and offensive line. The quarterback play by Austyn Carta-Samuels could turn out okay thanks to the plethora of targets and work he put in last year learning Franklin’s system, but the fact is Vandy is starting a quarterback with no experience in the SEC, and that can lead to some headaches. Much like the defensive line, the offensive line isn’t exactly swimming in talent. They’ve got Wes Johnson who functions as Barrett Jones LITE for the ‘dores, playing all five positions and giving them some much needed flexibility, but if Vandy wants to repeat last years success the linemen are again going to have to play well above their talent levels. This season I expect the Vanderbilt of old to rear its ugly head, a lack of depth eventually ruining what was once a promising run. The Commodores will start strong, but fade as the SEC schedule takes its toll, still going a very respectable 7-5 (I really want to say 8-4 but I just can’t bring myself to). Like I said, I really hope I’m wrong and we get another 9, or even 10 win Vanderbilt team. Wouldn’t it be great to see an SEC East stacked with Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and a 10 win Vanderbilt? Although if Vandy gets 10 wins they’ll probably just supplant South Carolina in the Big 3 out East, eh, still great.

Mississippi State 2012 Record: 8-5

It all comes down to this. The year we find out what Dan Mullen has had cooking behind the scenes these past four years. Names like Chad Bumphis, Johnthan Banks, Corey Broomfield, and Cameron Lawrence will certainly be remembered by State fans for years to come, but they will never again wear the Maroon and
Oh Dan definitely has something cookin for Hugh...
White. Bumphis and Banks have been stars since they first started as freshman back in 2009, but it’s time for the new kids to take over. Can Jameon Lewis finally settle down and run a rout? Can Joe Morrow finally break through and take advantage of that enormous frame? Will the secondary be able to recover from the losses of Darius Slay, Johnthan Banks (who will both probably start in the NFL this year). Corey Broomfield, and their coach? I have no idea. This is going to be an interesting year as we learn just what kind of development our coaches have been able to pull together on the sidelines the past few years.

The secondary is almost entirely new faces, as the only returning starter is Nikoe Whitely, who while excellent in run support, will have to improve his coverage skills this year. The good news here is there is both talent and experience behind him. State’s coaches have done a good job getting playing time for the then backups, now starters, and that should pay big dividends early this year. On the other side of the ball, the receivers are also almost entirely new faces from last year, but again, like the secondary, there is both talent and experience. Jameon Lewis, Ricco Sanders, and Robert Johnson all have playing time, while the sheer size of target Joe Morrow has made his name well known to State fans. This unit will have to grow up fast though to give Tyler Russell a chance to showcase some offseason improvement (hopefully). If Russell made similar strides going into this year as he did going into last, Mississippi State’s offense could get deadly. In addition to two veteran quarterbacks the Bulldogs return four running backs with game experience, and add a freshman who, by all accounts, is making a hard push for playing time. Two words. Red. Shirt. There is no reason to be five deep at running back when you’ve got a proven committee that includes a thousand yard rusher. Even better offensive news is that Gabe Jackson passed up a chance to go to the NFL last season and will again start for Mississippi State. That means State will return a wealth of experience on the
Gabe Jackson
offensive line that should result in better protection for Russell, and nice holes for the running backs. Overall, I like the outlook for Mississippi State’s offense, if the receivers can get in form early. Returning to defense brings us to the strength of that unit. The front 7. The defensive line should benefit from a year of experience for Quay Evans and Denico Autry, and all signs point to a heavy increase in production from this unit, which lost just one, underperforming, senior. A few years of deep recruiting classes have also given the Bulldogs depth on the line, a necessity in the SEC and an oft-missed piece of past Mississippi State squads. That just leaves the linebackers, arguably the best, most talented, and deepest unit on the field. Benardrick McKinney is an All-SEC linebacker in the making with speed, talent, size, and just for kicks, intelligence and vision. Behind him are hard hitting coverage specialists Deonte Skinner and Matthew Wells, and there isn’t much drop off in talent after the starters. Defensive Coordinater Geoff Collins went on record saying there may be as many as 10 guys who play at linebacker this year, which is good news considering the up-tempo offenses of Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.

Speaking of coaches, the move of Geoff Collins to sole defensive coordinator is a good one. Consensus is the players have been hyped in practice and everyone is anticipating higher pressures on opposing quarterbacks. If true that would go a long way to breaking in a new secondary at the beginning of the year. The addition of Deshea Townsend has likewise, so far, been a huge boost to the defense. Conventional wisdom is the loss of three starters and their coach would hamstring a secondary, but Townsend’s energy has given the Bulldogs confidence the younger guys can step up. As far as coaching my biggest concern is on offense, where the play calling has been suspect for the past three years. Far too often State’s offense has been predictable, and we’re now too far removed from that magical game against Florida where we ran it down their throats four straight quarters to cut it anymore. Something has to be done. We have plenty of weapons on offense, and it’s past time the coaches started utilizing them.

Overall the outlook for Mississippi State’s season is pretty…. eh. Scheduling makes it difficult, as early losses could sour this team and lead to a disappointing season, while an upset or two could launch this team to an era of talent and execution not seen ‘round these parts in… ever (excluding baseball). Unfortunately, I’m feeling pretty pessimistic, calling the Bulldogs at 6-6 and a fourth straight bowl game. If we beat Oklahoma State, that schedule starts looking more like an 8 win season. Either way, it’s important for State fans to remember, after the years we’ve suffered a couple of down ones that still end in bowl games (not the Egg Bowl, we don’t have to count that one anymore) is a huge leap forward for this program. Mullen, keep it up (and maybe get a new offensive coordinator).



Mr. Hooch: ...and there you have it, folks! If you're still reading now I commend you on sloughing your way through this monstrous first post of the season. There's a lot for you to digest and ponder as we count down this final week until that most glorious opening kickoff, so as always be sure to tell us what YOU think! Who knows, if you're smart or entertaining enough you might earn yourself a cameo on next week's blog!

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