MSU v LSU

This week has been full of the good, the bad and the very, VERY ugly. Personal life is rearing it's gigantic head again and eating up what little time I have to write, so I'm gonna get started and just see how much I can get done. First things first, I think this song captures the sentiment of what it's like to NOT be one of the SEC's elite, favored programs, and with SEC sweetheart LSU coming to town I feel it's appropriate...

Lorde - Royals

At the very least we're starting to get into the meat of the SEC schedule now, so the games will only becoming more and more compelling as we start to see where the chips are falling. This weekend has some great games, at least in the sense that the pecking orders for the divisions will start to be defined when the dust settles, so let's dig in and see what there is to see...

Georgia State at Alabama - Well, I said Bama would finally put together a complete game last week, and lo and behold they did exactly that en route to their shutout of Ole Miss. That little dose of reality hit some of the RebelShark fans pretty hard, but at least we don't have to hear about it anymore... Now that the Crimson Tide appears to be clicking on all cylinders it's down to LSU to knock them off their pedestal, because the rest of the west probably ain't doin it. Neither, by the way, will Georgia State.

Alabama 50 - Georgia State 7

Georgia at Tennessee - Georgia gave us the blueprint for how to beat LSU this past weekend, but will State be able to pull it off? We'll get to that later, but what we do know is that Georgia is very likely going to manhandle the Vols this weekend. Even if Gurley doesn't play the Bulldogs have the weapons needed to take care of business Saturday. Tennessee will be able to score SOMETHING, as Georgia's defense isn't what it once was, but it won't be enough to pull out the win.

Georgia 42 - Tennessee 24

Arkansas at Florida - I get the feeling this game may be closer than people are expecting. Arkansas' bread and butter this season is the running game, and Florida's defense isn't the stalwart behemoth it was in recent years. If the Razorbacks can control the clock and move the chains they can keep the Gators' offense off the field and limit the damage done. I still think Florida wins this one, but all it would take is a lucky/unlucky bounce or two and the Razorbacks could come out on top. I think the ball will bounce in Florida's direction.

Florida 35 - Arkansas 27

Ole Miss at Auburn - Both schools enter this contest sporting exactly the same record, 3-1 (1-1). Both schools also have (purportedly) high powered offenses, although Ole Miss failed to show anything resembling a spark against Alabama last weekend. Auburn's secondary is fairly suspect, ranking somewhere around 96th in the nation, and the combination of that and the Reb's talented receivers corps is going to ensure that Ole Miss puts up some points. Gus Malzahn will have something up his sleeve for certain, but I just see Ole Miss being the better team in this match. The teams are comparable, but there are just a few more question marks in a few more places for Auburn, and that's going to be the deciding factor. Offensively it should be a fun show, but Ole Miss' defense wins the day.

Ole Miss 37 - Auburn 35

Missouri at Vanderbilt - The battle of the also-rans, that's what this game is. No matter who wins (spoiler alert: I think it'll be Mizzou) they will only have secured their place as the third or fourth team out of the SEC East behind Georgia/Florida/South Carolina. The Tigers would love nothing more than to go in to Nashville and take a revenge win from Vanderbilt, who won their first SEC showdown last year. Playing at home could help the 'Dores somewhat, but baring any sort of catastrophic injuries I think Mizzou is better equipped at almost every position. As long as the Tigers can establish something resembling a running game they should have this game well in hand going in to the fourth quarter.

Missouri 38 - Vanderbilt 27

Kentucky at South Carolina - Well the hits just keep on coming for the Wildcats, and not the good kind like you want. The only person who was alive the last time Kentucky beat Florida is Conner Macleod, and that's only because he's immortal, so after losing the 3,574th game in a row to Florida they must now travel to South Carolina to receive their next beating. It won't be pretty, and more than anything I expect Steve Spurrier is just interested in getting ahead early so he can pull his starters and not risk any injuries.

South Carolina 47 - Kentucky 13

LSU at MSU - I always like to start this game review off the same every season, and that's by linking this, which is quite possibly the most hilarious first person account of an unwitting traveler venturing into Tiger Territory ever. LSU fans really DO smell like corndogs.

Now first I'll talk about what I want to see from this game, and then I'll talk about what I expect to see from this game... What I WANT to see from this game is, for lack of a better word, swagger. Actually there are several better words... attitude, flare, confidence. But swagger is what the kids talk about these days, so we'll go with that. And what I feel gives this team the most swagger is Dak Prescott under center. I want to see Dak start this game, and I want to see our offense come out and play solid, balanced football, move the chains and score points. With Dak and LaDarius Perkins in as a legitimate rushing threats we can make LSU commit to stopping the run, and then slice and dice their questionable secondary. Make the right calls at the right times and it's going to look so easy the Tigers will feel stupid when they watch the tape... I want to see our defense come out and hold Zack Mettenberger in check. I want the D-line to stop Hill from racking up major rushing yardage, and our secondary to shadow LSU's receivers like a Tom Clancy covert-ops ninja-spy.

Now, what I EXPECT to see is Dan Mullen giving Tyler Russell the nod as starting QB. I expect our offense to come out flat for the first two or three possessions. Our defense will be solid against the run but get torched for some big gains through the air. Then maybe Dan swaps out for Dak, offense picks up a little and we go in to halftime down 7-10 points. Both teams make adjustments at the half and LSU's defense tightens up on our offense which has started out behind the 8 ball thanks to Mullen second guessing himself on which QB to start. We make a push late third/early fourth quarter and pull within one possession of tying or winning, but the Tiger's 2 minute offense dashes our hopes and dreams of finally beating LSU again after 13 years.

As a team I feel like this group is primed to make the big leap and grab that signature win. We will need to play mistake-free football and get a couple of lucky bounces for that to happen, but it definitely can happen. Looking at the numbers LSU and MSU are virtually identical in their offensive stats.

TOTAL OFFENSE:

Name	G	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Yards/G
1	Texas A&M	5	1107	1825	381	2932	7.7	586.4
2	Georgia	4	836	1380	290	2216	7.64	554
3	Missouri	4	1049	1147	314	2196	6.99	549
4	South Carolina	4	899	1030	287	1929	6.72	482.3
5	LSU	5	961	1409	328	2370	7.23	474
6	Mississippi State	4	825	1030	296	1855	6.27	463.8

LSU has one extra game under their belt, but remove those numbers and you're looking at two fairly similar offenses in terms of production.

However on the defensive side of things Mississippi State has had much greater success than LSU, even though both teams are sporting secondaries that can be exploited at times.

TOTAL DEFENSE:

	Name	G	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Yards/G
1	Florida	4	214	596	211	810	3.84	202.5
2	Mississippi State	4	481	759	250	1240	4.96	310
3	Alabama	4	414	910	251	1324	5.27	331
4	Arkansas	5	632	1050	334	1682	5.04	336.4
5	LSU	5	741	993	338	1734	5.13	346.8

Those numbers would lead you to believe these teams are evenly matched, and maybe they are, but there are intangibles to consider as well. LSU is coming off a heartbreaker of a loss to Georgia on the road last week. MSU is coming off a bye week, well rested and with plenty of time to prepare a game plan. The Tigers know they control their own destiny, and a loss to anyone in the West essentially puts them out of the SEC Championship Game. Combined with their most recent loss this will have the Bayou Bengals chomping at the bit to bust loose and show the world what they can do. MSU has a lone loss to Auburn on their SEC tally, but they still have a fighting chance. Should the miraculous occur and the Bulldogs defeat LSU then suddenly games against Texas A&M and Ole Miss don't look quite so daunting. We will worry about Bama when and if that scenario plays out... the point is both teams are motivated, but I get the feeling the Tigers can taste it a little more, which may give them the edge they need.

I'll say this, and then I'll post my prediction: I really do believe this team is CAPABLE of winning this game. Sometimes the underdogs DO win. But it will take flawless execution at every single position on the field, a perfectly called game from Dan and the coaches, and a lucky bounce or two, but it can happen. Unfortunately I don't think we will put together the perfect game this weekend... we may come close, but not quite close enough.

LSU 27 - MSU 21

So that's the blog for this week! The professor is still on furlough so it's just me for this weekend's preview. I hope you all enjoyed the write up, thanks for reading! Until next time #HailState and #GoDawgs!

SEC Recap: Week 5

So I honestly didn't plan on doing a recap this week, but the Professor decided to throw this one at me. I didn't check my email until this morning, so if the recap seems late that's because it is. Be happy you have anything at all! Since I didn't do a recap I'll just piggyback off Professor D's work (he's used to it) and editorialize my comments in like a boss.


(Professor D) Overall the SEC did a bit better this weekend, winning all of its non-conference games. The downside this weekend was that some of those games where a lot closer than they should have been, but still, overall the wins and losses couldn’t have gone any better, so the conference gets a B this weekend. For as bad as a weekend of matchups week 4 brought, that’s how good week 5 was. LSU and Georgia threw down between the hedges, Alabama blanked Ole Miss, and Texas A&M’s defense seems to think College football should have a preseason, leading to an unexpectedly good game in Fayetteville. I apologize for not being able to get you my predictions for this weekend, things got a little crazy near the end of last week. Luckily I was able to sit back on Saturday and do nothing but watch football. Good times.

Vanderbilt 52 - UAB 24

South Carolina, Tennessee, take notes. This is how you handle a non-conference opponent. I don’t care who they are, if they aren’t ranked and they aren’t in the SEC, you blow them out of the water. That’s what this conference should be doing. Vanderbilt allowed just a field goal in each of the first three quarters, and although they gave up 15 points in the 4th, they also scored 21, so that’s forgiven. All told the Commodores put up 540 yards of offense, with 334 of those coming through the air, while holding UAB to just 206 passing yards. They did give up 156 in the ground game, which could be worrisome down the stretch, but overall Vanderbilt did a great job dominating the Blazers across the box score. (Vandy did against UAB what they should've done against UMass... better late than never, though!)

Tennessee 31 - South Alabama 24

As good as Vanderbilt looked against UAB is how bad Tennessee looked against South Alabama, leaning on an interception in the end zone in the final few minutes to secure the victory and avoid overtime against South Alabama. That’s pretty embarrassing. South Alabama scored first to take a 7 - 0 lead, but Tennessee responded with 31 straight points. Some time during the third quarter though, everything fell apart. South Alabama scored 10 unanswered points and drove down the field looking to tie the game with under two minutes remaining when Tennessee’s defense got their interception. The Volunteer’s defense gave up 392 yards of offense, saving themselves on the scoreboard by securing three interceptions. The offense on the other hand managed a pretty good showing, putting up 482 yard of offense, including 278 rushing behind that big, talented offensive line. The problem was, they also gave up three interceptions. Tennessee has to figure out a way to play a complete game of defense. Even if the offense struggles through the air the ground attack is good enough to control at least some of these games.

Missouri 41 - Arkansas State 19

Ahh another example of what non-conference scores should look like. Missouri seems to have things figured out this year, although they’re opening up a stretch of 8 SEC foes in 9 weeks so we’ll see how long that lasts. Despite having been beaten up by some bigger opponents I still maintain Arkansas State is a pretty good team. In fact early in the third quarter Arkansas State actually led this one 16 - 14. That was when Mizzou decided to start playing football, scoring 27 points in the last half to turn it into a blowout. Offensively the Tigers looked good, putting up almost 500 yards of offense in a balanced 256 passing to 239 rushing attack. Those are the sort of numbers that win games. The kind that lets you score points and control the clock. The defense did give up over 425 yards to Arkansas State, mostly through the air, but got bailed out by the Red Wolves 10 penalties. Like I said though, I still think Arkansas State is a better team than they’re getting credit for. That said, Missouri needs to shore up their defense with this slate of SEC games coming up, or this ride could get real bumpy real quick.

UCF 25 - South Carolina 28

I’m not really sure what to think of this game. On one hand, they beat UCF by 3 points, and that’s just not okay. On the other hand though, they lost their starting quarterback against a team that’s been punching well above their weight all year and somehow managed to find a running game to get them the win. So there’s that. I’ve said all year the Gamecocks weren’t a complete team, and while I’m not ready to give that up, they showed some signs of progress in the second half of this one. Mike Davis finally gave South Carolina a running game, and that allowed backup Dylan Thompson to relax in the pocket and start completing passes. What has to drive South Carolina fans nuts though is the fact that they at one point led 28 - 10 in the third quarter, and that Clowney-led defense managed to give up 15 points and give the Knights a chance to come back and take this one. Truth is the blame doesn’t really lay on Clowney’s shoulders so much as it does the Gamecocks’ secondary, which has been… suspect. The defensive front for South Carolina gave up just 69 yards on the ground, and Clowney & co. where able to get enough pressure to force 3 interceptions and 1 fumble. The Knights still managed 358 passing yards. That’s… bad. Especially if South Carolina wants to hold onto dreams of catching Georgia in the SEC East race.

Kentucky 7 - Florida 24

It’s been 27 years since Kentucky beat Florida. That’s an impressive streak of suckage. Florida’s defense is just dominant this year. They’re allowing 100 yards fewer than the next (statistically) best defense in the league (Mississippi State, Yay Bulldogs!). If Florida had anything resembling a competent offense they would probably win the national championship. Good news everybody (Florida fans), a competent offense is exactly what the Gators showed off Saturday behind back up quarterback Tyler Murphey. Sure he only threw for 156 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, but that’s honestly all you have to do to win games with this defense. That’s it. Don’t literally throw the game away, and you win. Complementing that didn’t-lose-the-game-this-time passing game is a rushing attack that put up 246 yards of offense. So now you’re telling me you’ve got a defense allowing under 14 points and only 250 yards per game, and an offense that can control the game clock while scoring, well, 14 points. The math says they won’t lose another game if they keep that up (we’re ignoring uncertainties, because me writing this blog is all about escape from uncertainty, which is what my dissertation is on for those of you who don’t know).

Arkansas 33 - Texas A&M 45

Well Texas A&M has one of the best, most polished offenses in the country. Right up there with Oregon, LSU, and Georgia. The problem is that defense is atrocious. Seriously, Arkansas completed less than 50% of their pass attempts, and still managed to put up almost 300 yards through the air. How? Because Texas A&M can’t tackle. I really wish the Aggies played Florida this year. Half the time it would be unstoppable force vs. immovable object, and the other half would be like watching a random selection of the pee-wee special olympics trying to play football (that’s about as offensive a way I could think to describe how bad Florida’s offense vs. Texas A&M’s defense could be). But, unfortunately, or fortunately, for football fans everywhere, that’s probably not going to happen. The one thing Arkansas has going for them this year is the ground game. These guys can run the ball, which you would think would give them an edge in time of possession (especially with over 200 yards on the ground to show for their efforts), but no, maybe it was actually brilliant, but the Aggie defense was so bad that Arkansas couldn’t control the clock with the ground game, because they were gaining too many yards. As in almost 7 yards per carry. Texas A&M should count themselves lucky the Razorbacks threw two interceptions. One of those interceptions was actually a pick six, and if either drive had ended in an Arkansas touchdown, well that’s a 14 point swing the Aggies couldn’t have afforded.

Alabama 25 - Ole Miss 0

This game was hilarious. Ole Miss opted not to kick a field goal on their first drive into the red zone against Alabama and ended up coming away with nothing. The result was the next time they got in the red zone, they were in desperate need of a touchdown, not just points, so they went for it again. And failed, again. So the third time TSUN made it into the red zone, well you know where this is going. 4 times Ole Miss got inside the 20 against Alabama, resulting in 3 turnovers on downs and one fumble. That’s just…. hysterical. This was the best way an Alabama vs. Ole Miss game could ever end. (I dunno man, I've got some pretty vivid fantasies involving both schools, nuclear warheads and a couple of Stephen King's domes if you know what I'm sayin...) Alabama’s offense, although they eventually did put up 434 yards, looked pretty bleak most of the game, settling for three straight field goals to start (1 of which was 40+, and the other was a 53 yarder. Yeah, that kicker deserves some serious love this week. I hope he got the game ball, cause a 53 yarder is mighty impressive, and it probably would have been good from 58. Great kick). The defense seemed to give up loads of yardage between the 30’s, but really clamped down in the red zone, or at least Ole Miss’ offense really just fell flat on their face. Maybe Hugh Freeze should spend less time memorizing bible verses to spit at recruits and more time drawing up a decent red zone offense. Man did I enjoy watching this game.

Georgia 44 - LSU 41

Wow. You know, I really do prefer defensive games, but honestly I’ve watched this game twice now, and the defenses didn’t look bad. They both got pressure on the quarterback, they didn’t miss a bunch of tackles, they had good calls. Aaron Murray and Zach Mettenberger just tore it up. It was incredible to watch these two guys duel. Mettenberger had an NFL offensive coordinator drawing up brilliant plays and two of the best receivers in the country running routes for him. Murray had an offensive line that offered a little more protection and a run game that could take more of the pressure off. These two quarterbacks could not have been more even. Mettenberger won in yardage with a whopping 372 to Murray’s very respectable 298. The difference was Georgia managed 196 yards on the ground compared to LSU’s measly 77. Jeremy Hill owes his quarterback and his teammates an apology, because he lost this game for the Tigers. I don’t know what changed between now and last weekend, or maybe Georgia’s defense just got that much better, but if LSU had anything resembling a run game, they’d be sitting pretty and in control of the SEC West. As it is, they really are still in control of the SEC West, if they beat Alabama and Texas A&M the crown is theirs, but they’ll likely have to go through Georgia again to have a shot at the National Championship. I would love to see this rematch. That was good football. This will be the one time I don’t complain about SEC heavyweights giving up 40+ points. Honestly, the quarterback where just that good on Saturday.

(Mr. Hooch) And that's it! We're gonna push this out right now to give a little lead time before tomorrow's preview, so we hope you enjoyed it and as always #HailState and #GoDawgs!