MSU v LSU

This week has been full of the good, the bad and the very, VERY ugly. Personal life is rearing it's gigantic head again and eating up what little time I have to write, so I'm gonna get started and just see how much I can get done. First things first, I think this song captures the sentiment of what it's like to NOT be one of the SEC's elite, favored programs, and with SEC sweetheart LSU coming to town I feel it's appropriate...

Lorde - Royals

At the very least we're starting to get into the meat of the SEC schedule now, so the games will only becoming more and more compelling as we start to see where the chips are falling. This weekend has some great games, at least in the sense that the pecking orders for the divisions will start to be defined when the dust settles, so let's dig in and see what there is to see...

Georgia State at Alabama - Well, I said Bama would finally put together a complete game last week, and lo and behold they did exactly that en route to their shutout of Ole Miss. That little dose of reality hit some of the RebelShark fans pretty hard, but at least we don't have to hear about it anymore... Now that the Crimson Tide appears to be clicking on all cylinders it's down to LSU to knock them off their pedestal, because the rest of the west probably ain't doin it. Neither, by the way, will Georgia State.

Alabama 50 - Georgia State 7

Georgia at Tennessee - Georgia gave us the blueprint for how to beat LSU this past weekend, but will State be able to pull it off? We'll get to that later, but what we do know is that Georgia is very likely going to manhandle the Vols this weekend. Even if Gurley doesn't play the Bulldogs have the weapons needed to take care of business Saturday. Tennessee will be able to score SOMETHING, as Georgia's defense isn't what it once was, but it won't be enough to pull out the win.

Georgia 42 - Tennessee 24

Arkansas at Florida - I get the feeling this game may be closer than people are expecting. Arkansas' bread and butter this season is the running game, and Florida's defense isn't the stalwart behemoth it was in recent years. If the Razorbacks can control the clock and move the chains they can keep the Gators' offense off the field and limit the damage done. I still think Florida wins this one, but all it would take is a lucky/unlucky bounce or two and the Razorbacks could come out on top. I think the ball will bounce in Florida's direction.

Florida 35 - Arkansas 27

Ole Miss at Auburn - Both schools enter this contest sporting exactly the same record, 3-1 (1-1). Both schools also have (purportedly) high powered offenses, although Ole Miss failed to show anything resembling a spark against Alabama last weekend. Auburn's secondary is fairly suspect, ranking somewhere around 96th in the nation, and the combination of that and the Reb's talented receivers corps is going to ensure that Ole Miss puts up some points. Gus Malzahn will have something up his sleeve for certain, but I just see Ole Miss being the better team in this match. The teams are comparable, but there are just a few more question marks in a few more places for Auburn, and that's going to be the deciding factor. Offensively it should be a fun show, but Ole Miss' defense wins the day.

Ole Miss 37 - Auburn 35

Missouri at Vanderbilt - The battle of the also-rans, that's what this game is. No matter who wins (spoiler alert: I think it'll be Mizzou) they will only have secured their place as the third or fourth team out of the SEC East behind Georgia/Florida/South Carolina. The Tigers would love nothing more than to go in to Nashville and take a revenge win from Vanderbilt, who won their first SEC showdown last year. Playing at home could help the 'Dores somewhat, but baring any sort of catastrophic injuries I think Mizzou is better equipped at almost every position. As long as the Tigers can establish something resembling a running game they should have this game well in hand going in to the fourth quarter.

Missouri 38 - Vanderbilt 27

Kentucky at South Carolina - Well the hits just keep on coming for the Wildcats, and not the good kind like you want. The only person who was alive the last time Kentucky beat Florida is Conner Macleod, and that's only because he's immortal, so after losing the 3,574th game in a row to Florida they must now travel to South Carolina to receive their next beating. It won't be pretty, and more than anything I expect Steve Spurrier is just interested in getting ahead early so he can pull his starters and not risk any injuries.

South Carolina 47 - Kentucky 13

LSU at MSU - I always like to start this game review off the same every season, and that's by linking this, which is quite possibly the most hilarious first person account of an unwitting traveler venturing into Tiger Territory ever. LSU fans really DO smell like corndogs.

Now first I'll talk about what I want to see from this game, and then I'll talk about what I expect to see from this game... What I WANT to see from this game is, for lack of a better word, swagger. Actually there are several better words... attitude, flare, confidence. But swagger is what the kids talk about these days, so we'll go with that. And what I feel gives this team the most swagger is Dak Prescott under center. I want to see Dak start this game, and I want to see our offense come out and play solid, balanced football, move the chains and score points. With Dak and LaDarius Perkins in as a legitimate rushing threats we can make LSU commit to stopping the run, and then slice and dice their questionable secondary. Make the right calls at the right times and it's going to look so easy the Tigers will feel stupid when they watch the tape... I want to see our defense come out and hold Zack Mettenberger in check. I want the D-line to stop Hill from racking up major rushing yardage, and our secondary to shadow LSU's receivers like a Tom Clancy covert-ops ninja-spy.

Now, what I EXPECT to see is Dan Mullen giving Tyler Russell the nod as starting QB. I expect our offense to come out flat for the first two or three possessions. Our defense will be solid against the run but get torched for some big gains through the air. Then maybe Dan swaps out for Dak, offense picks up a little and we go in to halftime down 7-10 points. Both teams make adjustments at the half and LSU's defense tightens up on our offense which has started out behind the 8 ball thanks to Mullen second guessing himself on which QB to start. We make a push late third/early fourth quarter and pull within one possession of tying or winning, but the Tiger's 2 minute offense dashes our hopes and dreams of finally beating LSU again after 13 years.

As a team I feel like this group is primed to make the big leap and grab that signature win. We will need to play mistake-free football and get a couple of lucky bounces for that to happen, but it definitely can happen. Looking at the numbers LSU and MSU are virtually identical in their offensive stats.

TOTAL OFFENSE:

Name	G	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Yards/G
1	Texas A&M	5	1107	1825	381	2932	7.7	586.4
2	Georgia	4	836	1380	290	2216	7.64	554
3	Missouri	4	1049	1147	314	2196	6.99	549
4	South Carolina	4	899	1030	287	1929	6.72	482.3
5	LSU	5	961	1409	328	2370	7.23	474
6	Mississippi State	4	825	1030	296	1855	6.27	463.8

LSU has one extra game under their belt, but remove those numbers and you're looking at two fairly similar offenses in terms of production.

However on the defensive side of things Mississippi State has had much greater success than LSU, even though both teams are sporting secondaries that can be exploited at times.

TOTAL DEFENSE:

	Name	G	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Yards/G
1	Florida	4	214	596	211	810	3.84	202.5
2	Mississippi State	4	481	759	250	1240	4.96	310
3	Alabama	4	414	910	251	1324	5.27	331
4	Arkansas	5	632	1050	334	1682	5.04	336.4
5	LSU	5	741	993	338	1734	5.13	346.8

Those numbers would lead you to believe these teams are evenly matched, and maybe they are, but there are intangibles to consider as well. LSU is coming off a heartbreaker of a loss to Georgia on the road last week. MSU is coming off a bye week, well rested and with plenty of time to prepare a game plan. The Tigers know they control their own destiny, and a loss to anyone in the West essentially puts them out of the SEC Championship Game. Combined with their most recent loss this will have the Bayou Bengals chomping at the bit to bust loose and show the world what they can do. MSU has a lone loss to Auburn on their SEC tally, but they still have a fighting chance. Should the miraculous occur and the Bulldogs defeat LSU then suddenly games against Texas A&M and Ole Miss don't look quite so daunting. We will worry about Bama when and if that scenario plays out... the point is both teams are motivated, but I get the feeling the Tigers can taste it a little more, which may give them the edge they need.

I'll say this, and then I'll post my prediction: I really do believe this team is CAPABLE of winning this game. Sometimes the underdogs DO win. But it will take flawless execution at every single position on the field, a perfectly called game from Dan and the coaches, and a lucky bounce or two, but it can happen. Unfortunately I don't think we will put together the perfect game this weekend... we may come close, but not quite close enough.

LSU 27 - MSU 21

So that's the blog for this week! The professor is still on furlough so it's just me for this weekend's preview. I hope you all enjoyed the write up, thanks for reading! Until next time #HailState and #GoDawgs!