Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Professor D's Weekend Recap: Week 4

Time keeps on slippin, slippin, slippin... into the future, and away from me. As a result, I'm letting the Professor take center stage for the recap this week, and possibly going forward depending on how he feels about that. At any rate, the Professor is about to drop a little knowledge, so you'd best listen up, kiddos!
[Editor's note: I will, however, be interspersing comments as I see fit... so there's that. All comments will be in parenthesis and in italics.]

(Professor D) Well guys this weekend lived up to its boring prediction. I was perfect in picks on the weekend, coming within 7 points of predicting 11 of the 18 teams scores. So really this week pretty much went as expected, with a couple of exceptions. Alabama didn’t look on form against Colorado State, Vanderbilt’s offense just wasn’t clicking, unlike Missouri and Mississippi State who blew out their non conference opponents. Other than that, well, it was pretty much business as usual. The Conference gets an overall grade of a D+ this week, as powerhouses Alabama and Georgia showed some struggles against easy opponents, while Arkansas flat out blew their game against Rutgers. Vanderbilt led UMass just 10 - 7 going into the 4th quarter. Florida and Tennessee were travesties, while Auburn and LSU looked exactly as advertised in their match-up. Missouri represented the conference well against Indiana, while Mississippi State did the same against Troy. Overall this is still looking like a very disappointing season for the SEC. Yeah I said that last week, but I’m going to keep saying it until someone steps up to the plate to shut me up. The best part of this weekend though? No SEC team allowed another team to score 40+ points for the first time all season. It’s about (damn) time.

Alabama 31 - Colorado State 6

Alabama’s defense looked pretty good this week against Colorado State. Of course, that was against Colorado (damn) State. The defense wasn’t really the issue for Alabama though, surprisingly. It was the offense that really struggled in this game, at home, against the (damn) Colorado State Rams. That’s (damn) scary. That’s the type of showing that screams future upset. The stat that should chill Bama fans to the bone is the Crimson Tide’s rushing yards. They had just 66 on 21 (damn) attempts. The other scary stat? 2 - 10 on (damn) third down conversions.That would be bad against any foe, but against the SEC, that’s an almost guaranteed loss, and this was not a (damn) good defense they were facing. The Tide led just 17 - 6 going into the 4th quarter, and 7 of those points came on a return of a blocked (damn) field goal. So really, the Tide offense led just 10 - 6 after the third. That’s unacceptable for this (damn) team, and officially puts them on upset watch this week against Ole Miss. I’ll never understand how (damn) Alabama held on to their number 1 ranking this week.

Georgia 45 - North Texas 21

My prediction for this game had Georgia scoring 48 and holding North Texas to 17. A final of 45 - 21 makes it look like everything went to plan, and as far as offense goes for Georgia, it did. They put up 641 yards of offense behind Aaron Murray’s 408 yard showing through the air. The run game contributed an additional 191 yards as the Bulldogs piled up the points late. Georgia’s defense also did pretty good, holding North Texas’ offense to just 7 points. So if the offense was clicking so well, and the defense found some rhythm, how the heck was this game tied 21 - 21 early in the third quarter? Well, see there’s more than just offense and defense in football. There’s also special teams, and Georgia’s looked terrible. The Mean Green were not only able to return a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, but they also blocked a punt and fell on it in their own end zone. That’s 14 points given up by Georgia’s special teams. Sure the rest of the team looked good, but that could cost them some otherwise close games. If the defense keeps improving, and the special teams can not suck, this team is starting to look like the powerhouse I hoped they’d be in the beginning of the year.

Texas A&M 42 - SMU 13

Whelp. That went about as expected. Manziel threw for 233 yards and ran for another 102. The rest of Texas A&M’s offense accounted for about 200 or so yards. More than enough to take on the Mustangs of SMU. The downside to this game for the Aggies is that the defense showed very little improvement after being thrashed by Alabama’s offense. They allowed 434 yards of offense in a bend-don’t-break style of defense. Sure they held SMU to just 13 yards, but how will that hold up against power offenses like LSU? Analysts will tell you that with A&M’s fast paced offense opponents are bound to put up big yardage numbers, but even so, 434 to the Mustangs is worrisome. But, that said, the Aggies came out with the big win they needed after last week.

Massachusetts 7 - Vanderbilt 24

Vanderbilt is in trouble. The Commodores were facing a UMass team with one of the worst defenses in the country, and only managed to score 24 points. When you consider that 14 of those points came in the 4th quarter, when the SEC level depth had worn the Minutemen down to the bone, and this game is even more troubling. The good news for Vanderbilt is the defense was able to hold UMass to just 7 points, of course UMass only averages 7 points per game, so that really isn’t too impressive. I’m just going to have to face it, Vanderbilt is not the team I hoped they’d be at the beginning of the year. Disappointing.

Indiana 28 - Missouri 45

So far we’ve had four SEC wins that revealed some serious weaknesses in the victors. This game was different. Missouri has emerged as the lone undefeated team in the SEC East. Yeah, that won’t last, but still, it’s impressive considering the year the Tigers had last year. Indiana came into this game with one of the best passing and overall offenses in the country, and while they put up over 400 yards against Missouri, the Tigers shut them down when it mattered. I know this sounds hypocritical after trashing Texas A&M for doing the exact same thing, but for Missouri and the offensive threat Indiana poses, this was a whole different situation. In response Mizzou sent in their own offense, which racked up over 600 yard of offense and 45 points. Statistically Missouri is now in the top 25 in every major offensive statistical category, and the top 10 in points scored. That’s pretty impressive. Sure the schedule is going to tighten up, but for now, enjoy it Tigers fans.

LSU 35 - Auburn 21

My prediction for this score was LSU 38 - Auburn 20, with LSU’s run game dominating. Well, that’s exactly what happened. With the torrential downpour all but eliminating the passing game early on, the LSU running backs ran all over the War Eagles behind an outstanding performance from their offensive line. Those guys were blowing holes in Auburn’s defensive front big enough to drive a truck through. Jeremy Hill put up 183 yards running, basically all in the first half. In their other games so far this year LSU has leaned heavily on Mettenberger and the passing game, but the weather forced them to come out with a different game plan, and the results were depressing to every team with the Tigers on their schedule. LSU looks like a complete team. The defense plays well, if not with the fire of years past, and the offense looks like one of the best, if not the best, in the SEC. I’ve been saying this was the team to watch in the SEC all year, but now I’m ready to call them outright favorites in the West. That could of course change if Alabama can get their act together, but LSU has come out firing in the opening rounds of the season.

Florida 31 - Tennessee 17

This game eventually got to be just hilarious to watch. It looked like neither of these guys wanted to win this one. Florida seemed to throw the ball right at the Volunteers every play they weren’t trying to run it up the middle, while Tennessee wasn’t throwing to anyone. The Volunteers made what I’ve seen called a “panic decision” benching their starting quarterback in favor of a freshman with little to no preparation. His start was short lived, but it saw 2 interceptions and put the former starter Justin Worley (who also threw 2 interceptions) in a no win situation. The Volunteers ended up with 6 turnovers in the game, while Florida had 3. That’s a total of 9 turnovers in a single game. I’m telling you, this one got funny. Florida starting quarterback Jeff Driskel left the game early with a broken Tibia, and will be out for the remainder of the season. Gator fans certainly feel sorry for the guy, but seeing what the offense did with backup Tyler Murphey, who averaged almost 10 yards per completion, helped. He also went the entire game without throwing an interception, which, with the defense the Gators are fielding, should be enough to win a bunch of games. Speaking of that defense, it truly is one of the best in the nation, holding Tennessee to just 220 yards of offense. Even behind that impressive offensive line the Volunteers only managed 66 yards on the ground. If the Gators can limit their turnovers, they just might come out ahead this season after all.

Rutgers 28 - Arkansas 24

This is another one of those games I got really close to predicting the exact score for. I came within three points of Rutgers (31) and got Arkansas right on the nose. The Razorbacks started out strong, even leading 24 - 7 halfway through the third quarter. I thought they could do it, I thought Arkansas would pull it out, and call into question all of my assumptions on where this team would end up at the end of the year. Nope. Didn’t happen. (So did I, and I paid for that one on my picks... we're not back to the dumpster fire just yet, but the Razorbacks should've won this one, period.) The Razorbacks gave up three touchdowns in the final quarter and a half to drop what is probably their last winnable game of the year. Arkansas managed just 283 yards of offense, with their vaunted rushing attack totalling just 101. They also committed 66 yards worth of penalties and converted just 3 of their 14 third down attempts. The lone bright spot for the game was not turning the ball over. The piggies are sitting at 3 - 1 with nothing but SEC foes left on the schedule, the weakest of which is Mississippi State. Good luck guys.

Mississippi State 62 - Troy 7

Who saw this one coming? (Well, I mean I said 45-14, so clearly I was CLOSER to seeing it coming... right? Right???) Seriously, I expected the Trojan offense to come out and give our young secondary fits, which to their credit, they did for the first three drives. Unfortunately for Troy two of those drives ended in turnovers which Mississippi State turned into 10 points. They did eventually score on their third to take a 10 - 7 deficit into the second quarter, but after that the Bulldog front 7 clamped down, hard. Troy, previously one of the most dangerous passing offenses in the nation, gained just 186 yards for the entire game. Against the most talented part of Mississippi State’s team the Trojans managed to rush for just 47 yards. That’s a good sign for the Bulldogs, who next face LSU and their potent running game (and passing game, but we’ll enjoy this win for now).

The signature play of the year so far for Mississippi State has got to be the Dak to Jameon, run fake, pass fake, back to Dak trick play that went for 36 yards and a touchdown. (Truly a thing of beauty... I just hope we have something else like that left that'll work on SEC defenses) It was beautifully designed and executed. It’s that last part that should really get State fans excited. We’ve run trick plays in the past, but even against non-conference opponents they haven’t been executed well. This one was. In fact, pretty much every play the Bulldogs ran with Dak under center (well, behind center) was executed well. This offense really rises to the challenge behind his energy and leadership. I hate it for Tyler Russell, but this is looking more and more like Dak’s team (although it looks like it’s going to take a hammering from LSU for the coaches to get on board with that).

Everybody’s been talking about the double hat trick pulled by Jameon Lewis and Dak Prescott, and while that overall athleticism will help us win games down the road, the real positive for me in this game was seeing Dak come in and dominate through the air. Against Auburn last week it was his legs, as he rushed for over 100 yards, but this week it was the passing game that gutted Troy. Sure his ability to run certainly opened up some opportunities (and some of those TD runs were absolute beauties) but Dak is finding open receivers, making reads, and completing passes. Some of his mechanics are off, like not stepping into throws (resulting in a few balls at the receivers feet), but that’s something I trust Mullen to work with him on. I said last week I was all aboard the Dak train, but now I’m really excited to see what this kid can do.

(Mr. Hooch) Thank you, Professor! And thank YOU for reading, friends! We will be back later this week with the Weekend Preview... until then #HailState and #GoDawgs!

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