(Mr. Hooch) Welcome back, friends! It's time for the SEC Weekend Preview of Week 9, and this week's song is Thrift Shop by Macklemore. If you haven't heard this song, or better yet watched the video, do yourself a favor. I'll wait here...
Mackelmore - Thrift Shop
I'm gonna pop some tags,
Only got twenty dollars in my pocket.
I - I - I'm hunting, looking for a come-up,
This is fucking awesome!
Walk up to the club like, "What up, I got a big cock!"
Nah, I'm just pumped, just bought some shit from the thrift shop.
Ice on the fringe, it's so damn frosty,
That people be like, "Damn! That's a cold ass honkey."
Rollin' in, hella deep, headin' to the mezzanine,
Dressed in all pink, 'cept my gator shoes, those are green.
Draped in a leopard mink,
girls standin' next to me.
Probably shoulda washed this,
smells like R. Kelly's sheets...(Piiisssssss)
But shit, it was ninety-nine cents! (Bag it)
Done? Good... now aren't you glad you took the time to check that out? This song is blowin up right now, kinda like our beloved Bulldogs. Dan Mullen will walk into the 'club' that is Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday sporting the thrift shop version of SEC athletes, compared to Nick Saban's "$50 t-shirt" athletes, and both will be sporting undefeated records. How's that for some thrifty shoppin? Dan Mullen has done an incredible job not only recruiting but developing the talent that is available to him, and this is the result. Now some of our fans (and theirs) will try to tell you that Bama doesn't respect MSU, and that they're probably looking past us to their game with LSU next weekend, but here's what the boys from Bama don't want you to know. They're scared. If not scared, then definitely worried... Seriously, think about it. They have been king of the hill for so long they don't know how to lose, and nobody outside of Starkville would've thought the Bulldogs would be 7-0 walking in to Tuscaloosa this Saturday. So now they look at the schedule and see an undefeated Mississippi State, and it scares them. It scares them because they would be so embarrassed if they lost to lowly MSU. It scares them because they know it's happened before. It scares them because they know it can happen again...
Most of you who have read this blog for the last few years know that I generally try to keep a reserved, logical approach to predicting our games. But not this week... this week I'm like the Fox Mulder of
Thanks to BigMotherTrucker from Forums.SixPackSpeak.com for the pic. |
(Professor D) It’s finally here. Mississippi State fans had the Tennessee game circled at the beginning of the year as the game that would tell us what to expect for that brutal final stretch. The hurdle that was Tennessee has been jumped. The gauntlet it is upon us and Mississippi State is staring down the barrel of 5 straight games in the SEC West. There are no more breaks, there are no more tune-ups and with the resurgence of Ole Miss and Arkansas’ sudden ability to actually play football, there are no gimmies. This is SEC football, and Mississippi State is undefeated. The two divisions turn inward this week in the SEC and Vanderbilt will play the conferences only out of conference game and LSU gets a break. On Monday we will either have a clearer picture of what the standings are going to be, or realize we have no freaking clue what is about to happen. Either way, it’s a weekend of reckoning.
Now, let's get down and dirty with some predictions for our other SEC games this weekend, and then we will wrap up with the MSU/Bama tilt. Enjoy...
U Mass at Vanderbilt
UMass has not won a single game this season, even against competition such as Miami (OH) Redhawks, Ohio Bobcats, and Western Michigan Broncos... Vandy has wins over Missouri and Auburn. Even Missouri and Auburn could've won three with UMass' schedule. Vanderbilt will have a nice little exhibition game this weekend while they prep for a showdown with Kentucky next weekend.
UMass 7 - Vanderbilt 24
Alright Vanderbilt, Mississippi State took care of its non-conference foe last week. This week it falls to the Commodores. The good news is Vanderbilt gets this game at home, where they have been at their best. The Commodores have put together a decent defense and the offense has its moments. That should be enough to give Vanderbilt the win against UMass, which is something Vanderbilt desperately needs if they want to make it back to back bowl games. A loss to the Minutemen would almost guarantee that the Commodores would not be bowl eligible at the end of the season. It really shouldn’t be too hard for Vandy to come out with a win though. UMass hasn’t won a game all year against foes like Western Michigan and Bowling Green. If Vanderbilt loses this game James Franklin may be in trouble. You simply don’t lose at home to a team that is 0 – 7.
Vanderbilt 42 v. UMass 13
Kentucky at Missouri
Welp, somebody's GOTTA win. Both the Wildcats and the Tigers come in to the game winless in the conference, so at the end of it all one team, whether they deserve it or not, will have an SEC win. I was going to go in to more detail about the struggles each team has faced, but I don't have three hours to waste and you don't want to read 47 pages on two teams that suck. Missouri will suck less, and I think ultimately it will be their special teams play that gives them the edge over Kentucky.
Kentucky 10 - Missouri 21
With Arkansas' sudden turn around the only truly terrible SEC team not playing in this game is Auburn. If either of these teams wants to win an SEC game this year, Saturday is their best chance. Kentucky still plays Vanderbilt at home, but the Commodores are no pushover for the Wildcats. Missouri gets Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Good luck with that Tigers. Both of these teams have the offensive weapons to win this game, and both have defenses perfectly capable of negating any momentum generated by those offenses. That isn’t to say the Wildcats or the Tigers will be fielding a great offense on Saturday. Both teams started the year with high hopes that were quickly scattered by injuries, especially to their starting quarterbacks. Kentucky plays a lot of freshmen on defense, freshmen who are starting to get the hang of SEC football. Missouri meanwhile has a bit more experience, but not quite the talent level Kentucky does. The Wildcats did get a spark last week in a closer than expected loss to Georgia. It could be just what they needed to generate a strong finish. It won’t result in a bowl game, but it would do wonders for Joker Phillips' job security and Kentucky’s ability to recruit in the offseason. On the other hand Missouri has a game-changing kick returner in Marcus Murphy. A special teams touchdown could make this a tough game for Kentucky to win. Neither of these teams will go bowling, but this is a matter of pride. Who wants to win an SEC game more? I’m probably going to regret this, but despite the games local I’m going with Kentucky. I’ll be damned if Marcus Murphy ruins another pick for me (I’ve had the score for 2 Missouri games predicted perfectly, except they decided to go and run back kick offs for touchdowns in both of those games).
Missouri 20 v. Kentucky 24
Texas A&M at Auburn
The Aggies are coming off a tough loss at home to LSU, and Auburn... well, Auburn continues to spiral downward. Johnny Football will be eager to prove himself and his team's worth, but even if they post 75 points in a shutout nobody will be impressed, because Auburn is just that bad this year. Actually, Auburn is off to their worst start in 60 years, and even though LSU gave the conference a blueprint on how to contain Manziel the Tigers won't be able to execute it well enough to pull out the win. As hot as Derek Dooley's seat may be, Chizik's is already on fire... good thing he will have $9 million to get some burn treatments on that ass...
TAMU 45 - Auburn 14
I actually considered picking the upset in this game. Texas A&M is coming off a brutal loss to LSU at home, the game is at Jordan-Hare. I almost started to get a little crazy thinking about what Auburn almost did to LSU (could you imagine what LSU’s season would look like now if they HAD lost???). Then I remembered the Auburn – Arkansas game and was brought back to reality. Baring a continued meltdown by Georgia (I mean Colossal meltdown… like Chernobyl or a Michael Bay movie) a loss Saturday pretty much guarantees that Auburn will not win an SEC game this year. I take way too much joy in that. Wouldn’t it be cool if they managed to beat Alabama for their one SEC win though? Man that would be amazing. Too bad they won’t be undefeated since Mississippi State will have already taken that from them (kidding, read on for that analysis). The Aggies’ high powered offense may have run face first into a purple and gold painted brick wall last Saturday, but the Tigers they will be facing this weekend are less brick wall and more gently sloping grassy knoll that will cushion your fall if you happen to trip over your own feet and provide a nice place for a picnic. No but seriously, this is a terrible defense. A&M should have no problem putting up another 500+ yard 50 point performance on the Plains. You know I used to want to see Chizik fired, but I think I’d rather him stick around so we can beat up on Auburn for the next few years. This has been fun.
Auburn 10 – Texas A&M 52
Tennessee at South Carolina (17)
South Carolina was on top of the world when they knocked off Georgia to the tune of 35-7, and it looked like they had a legitimate shot at making a run to the SEC Championship, but they fell from #3 two weeks ago to #17 this week after losing two straight to LSU and Florida. However the Gamecocks are still bowl eligible and the Ol' Ball Coach is telling his boys there's still plenty to play for. On the other side of the field the Volunteers are still searching for that first conference win, and would like nothing more than a signature win over a top 25 ranked team. They will have to make some drastic improvements in order to accomplish that goal. The Gamecocks are talented and pissed off... Tennessee is just pissed. Derek Dooley's seat gets hotter and hotter as the season progresses...
Tennessee 14 - South Carolina 27
South Carolina is reeling after back to back losses to LSU and Florida, but those may be two of the top three teams in the SEC this year (One of them may actually be the best, and if you’ve watched Mettenberger play this year you should know who I’m talking about). Tennessee actually has a chance to win this game. They have what could be the best offensive line in the conference to take on South Carolina’s talented front 7, and if Tyler Bray can limit the turnovers this could turn into a shoot out. The problem for Tennessee is even if they get into a shoot out against the Gamecocks, South Carolina has an offense that can keep up with the Volunteers. So if both offenses can score points, I guess it’s going to come down to defense. Hmm that’s tough. Who do I trust to win a football game: Tennessee’s defense, or South Carolina’s (I said Tennessee had a chance I didn’t say it was a good one). South Carolina may be all but out of the running for the SEC East, but they can get back on track to a decent bowl game with a win this weekend. Actually if the SEC sends two teams to the National Championship and LSU loses a couple of games, South Carolina could go to the Sugar Bowl. It sounds unlikely, but it’s more probable than Georgia beating Florida and letting the Gamecocks back into the race to Atlanta.
South Carolina 42 v. Tennessee 20
Ole Miss at Arkansas
Both teams are coming off the bye week, and both offenses continue to improve as the season progresses. This has the makings of a shootout written all over it, as neither defense has put up impressive numbers this season. Ole Miss is coming off an emotional win over Auburn... not emotional in the sense that Auburn was a marquee victory, but in the sense that it snapped their 17 game SEC losing streak. The Rebels look to build on that by taking advantage of a Razorback team that stumbled in the first half of the season before finding it's identity... or at least it's ID card. Arkansas has gotten
Lilu Dallas. Multi-pass. |
Ole Miss 27 - Arkansas 35
Who would’ve thought at the beginning of the year that this would be one of the games to watch this weekend in the SEC? Back then Arkansas was supposed to be a National Title dark horse and Ole Miss was the worst team in the SEC. Four weeks later this still didn’t look like an interesting game as Arkansas’ dumpster caught fire (You thought that reference was over didn’t you?) and Ole Miss decided it was a football team after all. Then Arkansas started to put together some decent games and all of a sudden this game has meaning. Ole Miss can cement their return to relevance and take a big step to becoming bowl eligible (they would have to beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, LSU, or Mississippi State). Arkansas meanwhile can prove they really have turned this season around and threaten to earn their own bowl eligibility (they would have to win two more games against Tulsa, South Carolina, LSU, or Mississippi State). Both of these teams need to go to a bowl game to sustain their momentum. With their remaining schedules that means they have to win this game. The question then becomes who wants it more. Arkansas has the more talented offense, but Ole Miss has been playing with some fire. That and Arkansas' defense is terrible, granted the rebel whatevers are only marginally better. This is a tough game to pick. If it was in Oxford I’d call Ole Miss with some degree of confidence. Hugh Freeze hasn’t been bad on the road though. I’m setting myself up for a bad week of picks but I’m going to go with Ole Miss.
Arkansas 27 – Ole Miss 35
Florida (3) "at" Georgia (12)
If you're wondering why 'at' is in quotes, it's because this annual match up between the Gators and the Bulldogs, formerly known as The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, is played in Jacksonville, FL. The Gators are in control of their own destiny, and a win here would secure them a berth in the SEC title game in December. Florida put on a clinic in their defeat of the Gamecocks last weekend to the tune of 44-11. However the Bulldogs are also in control of their own fate... by winning the rest of their conference games THEY would be the ones in Atlanta for the title game. Georgia's defense was thought to be a strength of the team, but they haven't lived up to the hype, whereas Florida's smothering defense has been everything you'd expect and more. Florida's offense is nothing to write home about, though, while the Bulldogs rank 18th in the nation in overall offense. This will be a great game to watch, but my gut tells me I'll have to go with the old adage that 'offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.'
Florida 24 - Georgia 17
They've got a point about the jorts.... |
It wasn’t that long ago that this looked to be one of the premier games the SEC would see this year. Then came Georgia’s slide into mediocrity, and Florida’s rise to Elite status. The bulldogs lost bad to South Carolina, took a week off, then came back sluggish against an awful Kentucky team. In that same span of time Florida beat LSU, went on the road to beat Vanderbilt, and returned home to crush that South Carolina team that shut down Georgia. The Gators capitalize on every mistake their opponent makes, and Georgia makes their fair share of mistakes. Will Muschamp has Florida in national title contention, and with their strength of schedule it could be argued that Florida and not Alabama deserves the number one spot in the SEC. You can bet they won’t be letting the world’s largest outdoor cocktail party (change the name if you want to, it’s just too good to go away) stand in their way. The state of Georgia should be used to people marching into their territory and burning everything in their path. This time though the invaders are headed to Atlanta, not through it (I love history). For Georgia to have a chance in this game Aaron Murray needs to play mistake free football. Their freshman duo of running backs can’t get discouraged by the number of 2 yard gains they're going to have against the Gators. They aren’t in there to score 50 yard touchdowns, they’re in there to give Murray a chance to throw for a first down if the Florida defense sells out on the run. They also cannot fumble. Every time they drop the football the Gators get seven points. Don’t give the Gators seven points. The other thing Georgia has to do is play good disciplined defense, something that they surprisingly haven’t been able to do this season. Jarvis Jones is going to have to take over the game and force a few turnovers for the bulldogs. Not necessarily to turn into points, but more just to stop Florida’s running game and get them off the field for a bit. Even if Georgia manages to do all of that, they will still need a bit of luck to hold off the second half bull rush Muschamp is sure to engineer.
Florida 35 – Georgia 24
Mississippi State (13) at Alabama (1)
There's so much I want to say, I honestly don't know where to begin. Let's start with the obvious... both teams are undefeated, so the winner of this game is in the driver's seat on the road trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game. The media talks and talks and TALKS about how MSU hasn't 'played anybody' and let's face it, they're right. But Bama has only played one 'somebody' this season, and that was then #8 Michigan in the first week of the season. Do I really need to explain that preseason rankings are stupid as hell? There shouldn't be any rankings until at least 3-4 weeks into the season, otherwise you're just praising a team on what they did last year, and that doesn't even begin to cover changes in coaching or players due to graduation, attrition, etc. But be that as it may, Michigan was somebody when Alabama beat them in Arlington, and Bama gets the name recognition lovefest every season anyway. But none of that matters, because this Saturday the Bulldogs will have the opportunity to prove to Alabama and the rest of the world that they do deserve their ranking, and they are, in fact, a quality football team.
One thing you're likely to see is Dan opening up the playbook a lot more. I'd be willing to bet there will be a much greater role in the offense by our tight ends in Tuscaloosa. Marcus Green and Malcolm Johnson are quietly having themselves quite the season. Green is averaging 11.3 yds/reception and already has 5 TDs on the season. Malcolm Johnson made a spectacular return to play after recovering from a torn pectoral muscle with his athletic one-hand catch against Tennessee. In fact, the Tennessee game is the only other game this season that has seen such production from the TEs. But that's not all... Dan Mullen hasn't been shy about swapping out QBs in the redzone, either. Dak Prescott has come in on many redzone possessions in a variation of the wildcat formation, and with his size and ability to scramble he gives opposing defenses fits. Prescott has been good for three rushing TDs and one through the air as well. Then there's offensive mainstays Chad Bumphis and LaDarius Perkins. Bumphis is averaging 16.5 yds/rec and has 6 TDs, Perkins is averaging 5.8 yds/carry and has 8 TDs. The MSU offense is more balanced than it has ever been, and that can only benefit the Bulldogs as it keeps opposing defenses guessing as to where the next strike is coming from.
Darius Slay doin what he does... |
So where does this leave us? Well I could be realistic and pessimistic and say that MSU has little, if any, chance at beating Bama, but I won't do it for one simple reason. The players and coaches believe they CAN win in Tuscaloosa. Mississippi State has beaten the 'unbeatable' Alabama teams before... they ended legendary Bear Bryant's undefeated streak at Alabama, after which the Bear came to the MSU locker room and congratulated the Bulldogs on their game. But there is a culture of acceptance among many MSU fans... acceptance of the perception that we can't beat the big dogs of the SEC, acceptance of the perception that we will only rise so far... Luckily Dan Mullen has his boys fighting and driving, grinding and believing in themselves. He's not willing to accept his position like some simpering lackey. So if the team believes they can win, why shouldn't we, the fans, believe in them as well? The answer is there is NO GOOD REASON not to believe... so I do.
MSU 24 - Alabama 20
My heart is racing even as I sit here typing this. Most State fans know their team has only a slight chance of upsetting Saban’s dynasty, but there is a chance. That’s all we dared hope for when we saw this year’s schedule. As soon as it came out Bulldog fans started thinking “wait, could we be 7 – 0 headed to Tuscaloosa?” and guess what. Mississippi State is undefeated, and Alabama is as untested as we could have hoped. The best game anyone has given the Tide so far this year is Ole Miss. I like to think my Bulldogs will fight as hard and valiantly as that school up north did, and Mississippi State certainly has the edge in talent against their in-state rival. The downside is Alabama has steadily been improving every week since the Michigan game to start the season. The holes Ole Miss exploited to stay in the game, such as the Tide’s weak pass rush and undeveloped passing game, have since closed. The emergence of Amari Cooper at wide receiver means the Tide is firing on all cylinders offensively. As far as the pass rush, the Tide still don’t have a consistent pass rusher, but they’ve taken to just bulldozing the center and trusting their big, disciplined linebackers to contain the quarterback once he starts running for his life. Mississippi State’s offensive line has been decent this year but they will need one heck of a game to give LaDarius Perkins some running room and Tyler Russell time to find the open receivers.
LaDarius Perkins has to have a good day for the Bulldogs to stand a chance... |
All and all Mississippi State has a tough uphill battle to fight in order pull out a win in Tuscaloosa. Chances are the Tide will come out of this game with another victory, but you can be sure that the Bulldogs will put up one heck of a fight. That’s really what State fans want to see. Wouldn’t it be sweet to be sitting atop the SEC West with an 8 – 0 record and Alabama off the schedule. That doesn’t mean the Bulldogs would have an open door to Atlanta. Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, and Ole Miss would still be looking to spoil State’s almost formed dreams. I think it’s time to bring back an old Mr. Hooch standby: The Wild and Woolly.
Actual Prediction
Alabama 31 – Mississippi State 17
Wild and Woolly
Alabama 21 – Mississippi State 24
There are tons of football movies and sports movies in general where coaches give inspirational speeches to their teams. One of my favorites is The Replacements with Keanu Reeves and Gene Hackman. If you've never seen it do yourself a favor, it's a fun movie. At a pivotal moment in the final game a reporter asks the coach, played by Hackman, what it's going to take for his team to win this game... his answer is as true for this team as it has ever been for any underdog facing the 'unbeatable' foe. "Heart. Miles and miles of heart." So go watch your favorite inspirational sports movie, and take the hope and the spirit and the excitement from that and channel it into your support for these Bulldogs. They can do it. WE can do it. We are Bulldogs, not lap dogs, and we're here to win! Hail State!
As always, thanks for reading, and be sure to stop by House of Hooch on Facebook and give us a like! Just click here. Have a great weekend, and Go Dawgs!
Great post! Entertaining and accurate... Just try not to get your heart too broken by the Bulldogs, Hooch.
ReplyDeleteBtw,I believe in Ole Miss, too! C'mon, Bo Wallace!!
Oh, love that "thrift shop" song
Thanks Boomer, but I can't take all the credit. The Professor definitely brings his own flare to the table... as for our arch-rivals Ole Miss, believe all you want, but the Egg Bowl Trophy stays in Starkville this year! ;)
DeleteEntertaining as always. I really enjoyed the Civil War references, Prof. Let me just say, "May the Cowbell of Leadership ring loudly on Saturday"
ReplyDeleteGO DAWGS, and HAILSTATE!!
I also believe in TSUN, like I believe in diarrhea : It stinks,has many names, and goes down easily in Bowls.