MSU v Tennessee

SEC Preview: Week 7

DJ Fresh - Gold Dust (Flux Pavillion remix)

Got you in my palm, now listen good, you can't escape it.
Bring you to my world and we'll just see if you can take it.
Don't you be afraid, I know you're strong enough to make it.
Go-go-go...
It's like gold dust!


(Mr. Hooch) Welcome back once again, my friends!  We are gearing up for an exciting weekend of SEC football here at the House of Hooch and we've got some great matchups to go over!  Our musical feature this week is some durty dubstep from DJ Fresh... not a lot to the lyrics, but this is the kinda song that gets Mr. Hooch amped up, so I thought it was appropriate... As for football, I love this time of year because the conference schedule is well under way and you can start to define that pecking order of who's better than whom.  Still some pretty big question marks in a couple of places, so let's get to it!

(Professor D) Wow. We’ve got another great weekend of games coming up. Not quite as evenly matched as last week, but I’m looking forward to it. This weekend could have a huge impact on the SEC standings as several teams will be vying for positions and pride. It’s going to be a fun weekend, so let’s get right down to what this couple of amateur writers/professional fans think is going to go down.

TAMU v La Tech

Texas A&M suffered a significant setback on the road last week against Ole Miss but still managed to crack the top 25, and deservedly so. This week they go on the road again to face a ranked Louisiana Tech. You heard me. Ranked. This is they type of non-conference foe that can really come back to haunt you in the SEC. La Tech boasts the number three offense in the country and averages over fifty points per game. La Tech's quarterback Colby Cameron should probably be in talks for the Heisman this year, but unfortunately he plays for La Tech. If he can engineer an upset against Johnny Football though he could really start attracting some national attention. Last year Cameron completed 118 of 215 passes for 13 touchdowns. He had a completion percentage of almost 55% and a quarterback rating of 137.2 thanks to only 3 interceptions. This year he's thrown 123 completions in just 180 attempts for 1456 yards with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. So basically in six games he's already tied or bettered his numbers from last year when he split time with 17 year old Nick Isham who transferred to Arizona State. Cameron has a completion percentage of 68.3% and a quarterback rating of 160. The bulldogs top notch offense has resulted in a 5-0 season. The problem is the defense allows over 35 points per game and is ranked 106 in the FBS. This is a problem facing the Aggies, even if it is at home. Remember how I said La Tech had the number 3 offense in the country? TAMU is number four, and that's with Florida and Ole Miss in their schedule. Texas A&M is also a much more complete team than La Tech, allowing only 14.8 points per game while scoring 44.6. That's a formula that will win a lot of football, including this Saturdays game. The bulldogs high powered offense is going to score points, but the Aggie defense will be able to do enough to give the SEC newcomers another out of conference win, albeit a tough one.

La Tech 33 - Texas A&M 42

Louisiana Tech has quietly snuck into the rankings at #23, and sports an undefeated 5-0 record this season.  The problem is that those wins haven't come against anybody worth mentioning.  All 5 teams have losing records through their first five games, with Houston being the best of those at 2-3 with wins over Rice and North Texas.  Meanwhile the Aggies have played some quality opponents... ok, at least ONE quality opponent in Florida, and they only lost by 3 points to the Gators.  But taking the strength of schedule out of the equations, you are still left with these stats: Texas A&M is currently ranked 8th in the nation in points for, and 14th for points against.  La Tech? 3rd is points for... 109th in points against.  That's going to be the problem for the Bulldogs.  This could very well be a barn-burner, but the Aggies will definitely come out on top.

TAMU 41 - La Tech 27


Auburn v OM

Seriously, guys.  Pick one and stick with it...
I swear, you're worse than the Auburn
War-Tiger-Eagle-Plainsmen!

The standings at the bottom of SEC West should become clear after this game. With Arkansas beating Auburn last week the Tigers can guarantee a spot at the bottom of the barrel by laying an egg in Oxford on Saturday. It shouldn’t be too hard, Gene Chizik just has to prepare the Tigers the same way he’s been preparing them all season, and Ole Miss will do the rest. The rebel land shark colonel something-with-white-hair-on-his-face black bears showed last week that they can compete at home. Granted Texas A&M had a rough day, Ole Miss still played a tough, albeit incomplete, game. They get a shot at redemption against a struggling Auburn. Six weeks ago I would have confidently predicted this as a victory for the Tigers. This week, with equal confidence, I will predict an end to Ole Miss’ SEC woes as they finally get a victory against an SEC team. It will be their first since 2010 after 16 straight losses. Ole Miss Quarterback Bo Wallace is completing over 60% of his passes for over 1300 yards so far this season. This is bad news for an Auburn defense that hasn’t exactly been… well… good. Ole Miss is scoring 31.3 points per game while Auburn is allowing 23.6. Auburn averages a pitiful 15.4 points per game (good enough for 119^th in the FBS) while Ole Miss allows 27.7. What that means is the Ole Miss defense should catch a break against an anemic Auburn offense. The home field advantage is pretty much the nail in the coffin for Auburn. This one is shaping up to be quite the battle for last place in the SEC West.

Ole Miss 27 – Auburn 17

Auburn is on suicide watch after losing to the Arkansas Dumpster Fires last weekend.  Meanwhile Ole Miss showed signs of life by playing a solid Texas A&M team down to the wire only to lose in the last two minutes.  Arkansas has a 1 game lead over Auburn and OM in the race to see who can get out of the SEC West cellar first, and that win came at the expense of this frazzled Auburn team.  The Rebels are still looking for their first conference win, and they have to be licking their chops at the site of this uncoordinated Auburn team.  I don't know what the line on this game is, but I think this could be a close one.  It's really difficult to convince myself that either team is going to EARN their win, but one team HAS to come out with a 'W', so here we go...

Auburn 17 - Ole Miss 21




Bama v Mizzou

I fully expect to read some tweet from Mizzou Nation complaining about how hard their schedule is on Saturday. After six weeks I really feel like I’m beating a dead horse here, but Missouri has proven they aren’t up to the challenge of taking on good SEC teams at home, or even sub-par teams on the road. So while this game is in Tiger territory, Alabama is a class above anything they’ve faced in at least a decade, and Columbus isn’t anything like the Tiger Territory Alabama normally has to visit. This game is going to get ugly. Nick Saban prepares his team every week as 

if they’re playing for a national championship, because in the SEC, you are. One game can cost you everything in this league, just ask Florida about that SEC championship in ’09. If you want to compete, you have to come out ready to play every Saturday. This game will just be another harsh lesson Missouri is going to have to learn this football season.

Missouri 3 – Alabama 42

The Missouri Tigers are still licking their wounds, most of which were sustained by their ego, after losing to the Commodores last weekend.  "Boo hoo! Our schedule is so tough! This isn't fair!"  Welcome to the SEC, BITCH!  If you thought it was tough before then wait til Saturday... Alabama is going to steamroll you like you were a third rate cartoon character created purely for the gag.  As much as I'd like to think Missouri could present some challenges for the Crimson Tide, they just can't.    

Alabama 41 - Missouri 6


Fla v Vandy

Both of these teams are coming off of big wins for their program. Vanderbilt got what could be a season saving win in the eyes of Commodore fans against Missouri, while Florida put itself in National Title contention by beating LSU. That’s pretty much how this game looks to play out, Vanderbilt playing for pride, Florida playing for titles. This looked like a trap game for Florida at the beginning of the year: traveling to Vanderbilt, coming off a game against LSU, looking ahead to Auburn. Now that the season is in full swing though nobody is going to get caught looking ahead to Auburn. Will Muschamp will have his gators ready and focused on the task at hand: thrashing the Commodores and preserving that top 5 ranking.

Vanderbilt 6 – Florida 31

Will Muschamp has the Florida Gators firing on all cylinders this season, which comes as a bit of a surprise to non-Gator-fans... They handled a befuddled LSU team in The Swamp and now turn their attention towards Vanderbilt.  The Commodores had to have been pleased with their win over Missouri last weekend, but it would be a bit of a stretch to imagine them pulling a 'W' from the jaws of these gators... especially now that Florida can smell the blood in the water.  Their games looming with Georgia and South Carolina will be very telling as to how qualified they are to represent the SEC East in the conference championship game, and as the Professor said, move into contention for National Championship chatter.

Florida 24 - Vanderbilt 10


UK v Ark

It's an SEC cripple fight!!!

This is going to be interesting. Arkansas finally put together a winning performance last Saturday against Auburn while Kentucky fell, somewhat valiantly, to Mississippi State. Neither of these teams really has a lot going for them this year, but Arkansas’ got talent, while Kentucky has injuries and freshman. I’m going with the talent and the home field. Arkansas has a pitiful running game despite the return of Knile Davis who is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry and has just 2 TDs this year. I’m looking for Arkansas coaching staff to do the smart thing and play senior running back Dennis Johnson a lot more. Johnson has half the carries Davis does, and only 20 fewer yards. He’s averaging over 5 yards per carry and has 3 TDs. Davis may have been the star before his injury, but Arkansas needs a running game, and Davis just isn’t the guy to bring it anymore. In addition to the inability of the offense to score points (Arkansas ranks 94^th in the FBS in that category, which still isn’t as bad as Kentucky) the Razorbacks also can’t seem to stop the opponent from scoring as they allow 35 points per game. Even those numbers aren’t as bad as Kentucky though, who’s once promising offense has been decimated by injuries and now scores just 20.5 points per game. The defense, also no stranger to injuries, is allowing teams to score just over 30 points per game. All of this is a recipe for one gross but entertaining game, unless you root for either of the teams actually playing in it. Kentucky’s starting freshman will be on their heels again against Tyler Wilson as the Razorbacks pass their way to a win.

Arkansas 30 – Kentucky 20

This inter-divisional match between the low men on the totem pole could actually be a good game to watch... it just depends on which teams show up.  Arkansas is riding high after a win over Auburn which, if nothing else, keeps them out of last place in the Western Division.  Kentucky meanwhile limps into this game winless in the SEC and hoping against hope that Arkansas will pull another fantastical meltdown of epic proportions.  Was the win over Auburn a fluke, or are the Razorbacks getting their act together now?  The outcome of this game won't tell us much about that, but in the end I have to think the Hogs will pick up their second SEC win...

Arkansas 27 - Kentucky 17


SC v LSU

LSU’s offense flopped for the third week in a row against Florida and they finally paid for it with a loss. South Carolina rolls into town with a defense that barely allows teams into the double digits and an offense that knows how to finish a drive. LSU still has an impressive defense, allowing teams to score just 12.8 points per game, but the offense is only averaging 9 points in SEC games. To be fair those games were being played in hostile territory while they will be taking on the Gamecocks back home in Death Valley. Les Miles has a tough job ahead of him getting his offense ready to move the ball though, and while I think Miles is an incredible coach, I don’t think anyone could get this offense ready to face South Carolina’s defense. LSU fans are going to join Arkansas and Auburn in the head scratching on Sunday as what should have been a season of redemption and pretty trophies will quickly turn into a struggle just to stay in the top 10. It’s going to be a great game in Baton Rouge.

LSU 5 – South Carolina 17

This is going to be a great game.  There's so much riding on it for both programs... but mainly it's National Championship game consideration.  That may be a bit of a stretch in LSU's case as they would have to win out, which would include beating a strong Alabama team, to make it to Atlanta in the first place.  However the Gamecocks' row is no easier to hoe.  They still have Florida on the schedule, who has proven they deserve consideration in that same conversation, as well as a Tennessee team that is better than many predicted to start the season, and could easily spoil a season or two for their SEC East brethren. And then they close out their schedule with Clemson, who is currently ranked 16th in the nation, and beat SEC foe Auburn to open the season.  South Carolina's defense could wreak havoc in the backfield for LSU as they have some of the best pass rushing going this season, and LSU's O-line is suspect after losing tackle Chris Faulk.  If the LSU QB keeps holding the ball as long as he has been he will find himself becoming intimately familiar with the turf behind the line of scrimmage.  Still, LSU is no stranger to national title chatter and they have something to prove after losing to Florida last week.  South Carolina is coming off the big (and very convincing) win over #5 Georgia, so their emotions could work for them or against them.  I expect coach Spurrier will not let his boys get too worked up one way or another... this ain't his first rodeo.  So, who will it be?  LSU has home field advantage, and Death Valley is one of the 

You gotta hand it to Boudreaux...
Disguising his beer hat as a viking helmet
is pretty inspired.

most brutal places to play, especially at night since it lets the Tiger fan base get... um... nice and loose? (read: extremely liquored up)  But the Gamecocks have already won 2 SEC games on the road this season, so it's not out of the question for them to notch a third mark in that category.  Although something tells me I might regret this choice, I am going to pick SC for the win...

South Carolina 17 - LSU 14

MSU v Tenn

The game Mississippi State fans have been waiting for all season is finally here. Tennessee rolls into Starkville boasting an impressive passing offense, but waiting for them at Davis Wade will be Mississippi State’s lethal secondary. If Tennessee has done their job in the film room they should come out firing on the short passes, especially over the middle. The bulldog linebackers are going to have to step up and have a career day against the pass to prevent a shoot out.

            First lets meet the Volunteers who come in 3 – 2 overall and 0 – 2 in the SEC, but don’t be fooled; those two losses came to Florida and on the road at Georgia. Tyler Bray comes into the game completing over 60% of his passes and has 14 TD already. Helping him out is a pair of receivers who will probably end up in the NFL some day. Justin Hunter has 33 receptions for 456 yards on with 4 TDs, but only three of those receptions came on the road against Georgia. Cordarrelle Patterson has 21 receptions for 290 yards and 2 TDs, but also struggled on the road. The rushing game has been consistent for Tennessee with feature back Raijon Neal averaging over 4 yards per carry. He also had 104 yards against Georgia on the road. The defense however has been suspect, ranking 86^th overall in the points against category. The Volunteers have been especially porous against the run.

            What that means for Mississippi State is, in a nutshell, it’s time to play some old man football. The defense needs to be on its toes and ready to play. The secondary should be able to shut down the long pass for most of the game, but it will be up to the linebackers to stop Tyler Bray from picking them apart underneath. The good news is Tennessee has a habit of turning the ball over, with 10 turnovers on the year, 7 of which were interceptions. Those are dangerous numbers playing against a Mississippi State defense who loves to take the ball away. If the defense can force Tennessee to be one dimensional on the ground then Mississippi State could find itself bowl eligible after its second October game. If the bulldogs can’t stop the short pass, it will fall on the defensive line to pressure Tennessee into some bad decisions. Tennessee has a decent enough offense line, but if State’s talented defensive front can come out and play above their experience level it would open up another route to a Mississippi State victory. Neither team allows many sacks, in fact they are tied for fewest sacks in the SEC at 3, but Mississippi State and Tennessee are 13 and 14 when it comes to generating sacks as well. Offensively Mississippi State’s game plan will be similar to what was used against Kentucky: a balanced attack, using short passes to pull the linebackers back into the secondary, and then pounding out the game on the ground. Clock management could be essential as Tennessee has the ability to score in a hurry, but Tyler Russell has been good about keeping control of the clock all year though.

            Overall I’m looking for this to be a close game, determined by which defense can hold out the longest. If State can avoid turning the ball over and giving Tennessee extra possessions then the defense should be up to the task of limiting Tyler Bray’s passing attack. This should be a great game and the fans at Davis Wade should be packed in an rowdy after a day of drinking and watching football in the Junction.

Mississippi State 27 – Tennessee 21

Oh what a game this will be... MSU fans have been salivating over this game since the start of the season.  Many were quietly optimistic that the Bulldogs could possibly enter this game 5-0, but if you know anything about southern football fans and their superstitions you'll understand why very few, if any, have made much of it until this week.  If State can win here and take care of business next week against a pesky Middle Tennessee team they will march into Tuscaloosa at 7-0, squarely under the spotlight as they take on what most would have to think would be a still undefeated Crimson Tide.

But not so fast, my friend!  There's a game to be played here, and it's going to take everything the Bulldogs have got to come away with a win.  Tennessee's only losses so far this season both came against ranked opponents, namely #18 Florida and #5 Georgia.  Also Tennessee has the advantage of coming off a bye week, so they've had 2 weeks to rest and gameplan for MSU.  Whether or not that time off has helped the Vols floundering defense remains to be seen, however.  The Vols defense has trouble stopping teams both on the ground and in the air, and this is the most balanced MSU offense that most of the fans have seen in their lifetimes.  If Tennessee loads the box to stop Perkins chances are Tyler Russell will find an open receiver down field or in the flats.  If Tennessee pulls back into a prevent defense you can bet Russell or Perkins will gash them for 6-8-10 yards.  It all comes down to Tyler Russell making his reads, and I think he can do that.  He has shown poise this season and is currently sporting a 10:1 TD to INT ratio.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldog defense, which started the season strong before stumbling a bit in recent games, is still good for the 11th ranked team in the nation in points against.  Compare that to Tennessee's rank of 86th in the same stat and it might give you a warm, fuzzy feeling inside.  But you cannot overlook the veteran signal caller Tyler Bray who will be taking the snaps for the Vols.  Bray's TD:INT ratio is not as good at 14:6, but he is a confident and consistent QB.  Bray and the Volunteers like to air out the pass more so than running the ball on the ground, though, and that could spell disaster for the boys in orange.  Bray will be facing 2 of the best defensive backs in the country in Darius Slay and Jonathan Banks, who are interception machines with 4 and 3 on the season, respectively.  To be fair, Bray will be targeting 2 future NFL receivers in Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson.  The match up between the MSU secondary and the Vol receivers will be an exciting showdown and definitely one to keep an eye on.

It's hard for Mr. Hooch not to show some bias in this pick, but in the few lucid moments when I am thinking clearly I am still confident that MSU can win this game.  They match up well with Tennessee at all the right positions, and they have home field advantage.  However it will take a complete game and consistent effort from the Bulldogs to pull off the win, and Dan Mullen knows that.  I believe he will have the Dawgs primed and ready when they take the field Saturday night...

MSU 31 - Tennessee 21

And that does it for the SEC Weekend Preview here at the House of Hooch!  It's sure to be a wild weekend, as the Professor, Mr. Hooch and several of our friends will be attending a Breaking Bad costume party tonight, followed by a long day of tailgating and football, and capped off with a great game at Davis Wade Stadium!  So if you see us out and about feel free to stop us and tell us what you do (or don't) like about the blog.  We love talking SEC football... probably a little too much.  Anyway, thanks for reading, and be sure to like us on Facebook, retweet us on Twitter, or just throw the link in an email or on the social media of your choice!  Seeya next week!